NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tetairoa McMillan WR

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

5.5 Receptions O +121U -155

Hit rate · All 27%6/22 Odds imply 42.7% Over

Season avg: 6.5
Graph avg: 4.6
Graph median: 4.51–14
Over the close: 48%10/21

2026 per game

Targets9.8▲+2.6

Rec6.5▲+2.3

Rec Yds96.2▲+35.4

Rec TD0.5▲+0.1

Snaps62.2▲+7.5

Snap %86.5%▼-0.8

5.5

2025

5

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
3

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
7

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
5

Nov 09
8

Nov 16
2

Nov 24
1

Nov 30
2

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
4

Jan 03
5

Jan 10
2026

5

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
14

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 36% 4/11 · avg 5.1
Away 18% 2/11 · avg 4.1
vs PHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 64% 14/22
O 4.5 50% 11/22
O 5.5 Today 27% 6/22
O 6.5 14% 3/22
O 7.5 9% 2/22

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds142.7#16
Receptions10.3#22
Targets17.1#18
Yds/Target8.3#13
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs PHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced PHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %-11%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Parker Washington	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 11	Jakobi Meyers	2	3.2	-38%
Oct 04	Puka Nacua	9	11.0	-18%
Oct 04	Davante Adams	4	5.8	-30%
Sep 28	Kalif Raymond	6	4.5	+33%
Sep 28	Luther Burden III	7	4.0	+75%
Sep 20	Wan'Dale Robinson	1	5.2	-81%
Sep 20	Carnell Tate	3	5.0	-40%
Sep 13	Stefon Diggs	4	4.7	-14%
Sep 13	Terry McLaurin	2	4.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%7.7 yds	6%25.5 yds	11%17.1 yds
Short	22%5.6 yds	14%9.9 yds	33%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 22 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DET	14	Over	5.5	67 (89%)
2026-09-27	3	@ CLE	2	Under	4.5	73 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ATL	5	Under	4.5	53 (80%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CHI	5	Under	4.5	56 (82%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	5	Under	4.5	60 (90%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	4	Under	3.5	45 (88%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	1	Under	1.5	44 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	6	Over	6.5	47 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	2	Under	4.5	48 (84%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	1	Under	0.5	47 (73%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	2	Under	3.5	42 (91%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	8	Over	4.5	69 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	5	Under	5.5	48 (91%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	4	Under	—	49 (84%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	7	Over	4.5	57 (93%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	3	Under	4.5	62 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	3	Under	3.5	62 (93%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	6	Over	4.5	63 (90%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	4	Under	4.5	65 (94%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	3	Under	3.5	52 (90%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	6	Over	5.5	72 (85%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	5	Under	5.5	53 (83%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 5Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.