NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kyren Williams RB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -144U +112

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 55.6% Over

Season avg: 5.4
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 2.00–10
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Carries14.0▼-1.2

Rush Yds68.6▼-3.2

Rush TD0.8▲+0.2

Targets6.6▲+3.6

Rec5.4▲+3.2

Rec Yds40.0▲+22.4

Snaps52.8▲+7.8

Snap %69.2%▲+2.3

2.5

2025

2

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
0

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
3

Dec 18
3

Dec 29
3

Jan 04
2

Jan 10
4

Jan 18
2

Jan 25
2026

3

Sep 10
2

Sep 21
6

Sep 27
10

Oct 04
6

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 2.5
Away 35% 8/23 · avg 2.6
vs ARI 75% 3/4 · avg 3.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 75% 15/20
O 2.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 3.5 20% 4/20
O 4.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds132.6#1
Yds/Carry4.8#3
Rush TD1.0#7
Targets5.4#16
Rec Yds36.3#8

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.1

Avg diff %-42%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	5	5.5	-9%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	1	2.2	-56%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	4	3.8	+7%
Sep 20	George Holani	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 13	Keaton Mitchell	0	3.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%0.0 yds	2%20.0 yds
Short	30%8.6 yds	22%7.7 yds	44%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	6	Over	3.5	60 (73%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	10	Over	2.5	70 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	6	Over	2.5	61 (71%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	2	Under	2.5	34 (55%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	3	Over	1.5	39 (64%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	2	Under	2.5	31 (51%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	4	Over	1.5	49 (63%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	2	Under	2.5	48 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	3	Over	2.5	47 (63%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	3	Over	1.5	46 (71%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	3	Over	1.5	65 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	1	Under	1.5	39 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	2	Under	2.5	36 (51%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	35 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	1	Under	1.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	1	Under	2.5	35 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	2	Under	2.5	40 (58%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	0	Under	0.5	55 (69%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	2	Under	2.5	42 (60%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	2	Under	2.5	40 (75%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5PrizePicks 3

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.