NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Alvin Kamara RB

NO vs NYG · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -107U -119

Hit rate · All 72%21/29 Odds imply 48.8% Over

Season avg: 3.2
Graph avg: 3.9
Graph median: 4.01–7
Over the close: 36%5/14

2026 per game

Carries7.0▼-4.9

Rush Yds21.5▼-21.3

Rush TD0.5▲+0.4

Targets4.0▲+0.5

Rec3.2▲+0.2

Rec Yds10.2▼-6.7

Snaps21.0▼-20.5

Snap %31.5%▼-32.2

2.5

2024

5

Sep 08
2

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
7

Sep 29
6

Oct 07
5

Oct 13
6

Oct 17
6

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
5

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
4

Dec 01
5

Dec 08
4

Dec 15
2025

2

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
5

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
2

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
2

Nov 23
2026

5

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
5

Oct 05
2

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 71% 12/17 · avg 3.8
Away 75% 9/12 · avg 4.1
vs NYG 100% 2/2 · avg 4.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 29/29
O 1.5 90% 26/29
O 2.5 Today 72% 21/29
O 3.5 62% 18/29
O 4.5 45% 13/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs NYG

What NYG allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds96.4#15
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.6#18
Targets3.5#32
Rec Yds21.9#29

RBs vs NYG · 2026

Each main RB who faced NYG this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.6

Avg diff %-38%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Rachaad White	1	3.0	-67%
Oct 04	Tyler Allgeier	2	2.5	-20%
Sep 27	Tyjae Spears	0	3.5	-100%
Sep 21	Kyren Williams	2	6.2	-68%
Sep 13	Javonte Williams	5	3.0	+67%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	7%13.7 yds
Short	32%5.7 yds	15%8.7 yds	33%5.5 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYG defense

NYG defense: Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	2%21.6 yds#4	8%8.9 yds#26
Short	30%5.9 yds#15	15%8.2 yds#9	36%6.0 yds#9

Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	50%5.5 yds	12%7.2 yds	35%2.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	5	10.8	54	27.9%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	5	7.4	37	19.7%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	5	6.4	32	16.8%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	4	4.0	16	11.1%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Bryce Lance WR	5	3.2	16	8.3%
7	Noah Fant TE	4	3.2	13	7.4%
8	Kendre Miller RB	4	1.5	6	3.5%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs MIN	2	Under	3.5	12 (27%)
2026-10-05	4	vs ATL	5	Over	3.5	28 (38%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	1	Under	2.5	24 (32%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	5	Over	2.5	20 (29%)
2025-11-23	12	vs ATL	2	Under	2.5	11 (14%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CAR	3	Over	3.5	43 (63%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LA	1	Under	1.5	24 (59%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TB	2	Under	3.5	37 (51%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CHI	3	Over	2.5	47 (84%)
2025-10-12	6	vs NE	5	Over	5.5	35 (62%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NYG	4	Over	4.5	37 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ BUF	4	Over	4.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SEA	1	Under	—	54 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SF	6	Over	5.5	61 (86%)
2025-09-07	1	vs ARI	2	Under	1.5	59 (79%)
2024-12-15	15	vs WAS	4	Over	—	25 (45%)
2024-12-08	14	@ NYG	5	Over	—	49 (72%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LA	4	Over	—	60 (86%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CLE	4	Over	—	44 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	vs ATL	5	Over	—	43 (81%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CAR	6	Over	—	61 (77%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LAC	6	Over	—	40 (55%)
2024-10-17	7	vs DEN	6	Over	—	40 (57%)
2024-10-13	6	vs TB	5	Over	—	52 (74%)
2024-10-07	5	@ KC	6	Over	—	47 (89%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ATL	7	Over	—	61 (82%)
2024-09-22	3	vs PHI	3	Over	—	48 (86%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DAL	2	Under	—	37 (63%)
2024-09-08	1	vs CAR	5	Over	—	34 (52%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.