NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Oronde Gadsden TE

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -112U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 1.8
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Targets3.2▼-1.3

Rec1.8▼-1.4

Rec Yds17.2▼-26.2

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps31.4▼-9.5

Snap %46.4%▼-15.1

1.5

2025

2

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
7

Oct 12
7

Oct 19
5

Oct 23
5

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
1

Nov 30
1

Dec 08
4

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
3

Dec 27
2

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
2026

2

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
0

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 64% 7/11 · avg 2.7
Away 80% 8/10 · avg 3.1
vs KC 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 2.5 45% 9/20
O 3.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs KC

What KC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds59.4#8
Receptions6.3#6
Targets8.4#6
Yds/Target7.1#17
Rec TD0.5#11

TEs vs KC · 2026

Each main TE who faced KC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %-11%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Brock Bowers	6	9.0	-33%
Sep 27	Greg Dulcich	5	2.7	+88%
Sep 20	Tyler Warren	6	6.0	+0%
Sep 14	Nate Adkins	0	2.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds	3%27.0 yds	6%0.0 yds
Short	30%8.1 yds	18%7.0 yds	36%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	0	Under	3.5	39 (58%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	5	Over	2.5	39 (55%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	0	Under	3.5	39 (57%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	2	Over	1.5	30 (44%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	2	Over	—	10 (18%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	3	Over	1.5	27 (45%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	2	Over	—	33 (46%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	3	Over	2.5	46 (73%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	1	Under	1.5	38 (59%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	4	Over	2.5	34 (52%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	46 (62%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	1	Under	1.5	47 (70%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	2	Over	1.5	42 (88%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	3	Over	4.5	38 (52%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	5	Over	5.5	52 (80%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	5	Over	5.5	56 (77%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	7	Over	7.5	60 (79%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	7	Over	2.5	47 (73%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	1	Under	1.5	36 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	2	Over	2.5	30 (48%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.