NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Xavier Worthy WR

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +101U -128

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 47.0% Over

Season avg: 3.5
Graph avg: 3.5
Graph median: 3.00–8
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Targets5.5▲+0.3

Rec3.5▲+0.5

Rec Yds33.2▼-4.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps52.5▲+6.4

Snap %80.2%▲+9.7

4.5

2024

6

Jan 26
8

Feb 09
2025

0

Sep 05
5

Sep 28
6

Oct 06
2

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
5

Oct 27
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
4

Nov 27
3

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

3

Sep 14
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 3.4
Away 24% 4/17 · avg 3.9
vs LAC 25% 1/4 · avg 2.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 70% 14/20
O 3.5 45% 9/20
O 4.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 5.5 15% 3/20
O 6.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions10.6#16
Targets16.1#27
Yds/Target8.6#12
Rec TD0.9#14

WRs vs LAC · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jaylen Waddle	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 11	Courtland Sutton	2	2.2	-9%
Oct 04	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	5	8.8	-43%
Oct 04	Cooper Kupp	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 27	Khalil Shakir	1	4.2	-76%
Sep 27	Keon Coleman	1	3.5	-71%
Sep 20	Tre Tucker	5	3.5	+43%
Sep 20	Jalen Nailor	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 13	Michael Wilson	5	6.0	-17%
Sep 13	Kendrick Bourne	8	3.0	+167%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%10.8 yds	6%27.7 yds	16%4.9 yds
Short	20%6.1 yds	6%8.3 yds	42%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	4	Under	3.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	3.5	43 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	5	Over	3.5	69 (86%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Under	3.5	53 (77%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	34 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	2	Under	3.5	38 (84%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	2	Under	2.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	3	Under	3.5	49 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	4	Under	3.5	58 (88%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	4	Under	3.5	74 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	3	Under	3.5	53 (76%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	3	Under	2.5	50 (83%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	5	Over	4.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Under	3.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	2	Under	2.5	47 (73%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	6	Over	6.5	49 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	43 (59%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	0	Under	5.5	3 (5%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	8	Over	—	51 (91%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	6	Over	—	54 (82%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.