NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Efton Chism III WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -222U +146

Hit rate · All 20%3/15 Odds imply 62.9% Over

Season avg: 1.8
Graph avg: 0.9
Graph median: 0.00–5
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Targets2.8▲+2.4

Rec1.8▲+1.4

Rec Yds19.6▲+10.1

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps31.8▲+19.0

Snap %45.2%▲+25.3

1.5

2025

0

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
0

Nov 13
0

Dec 01
2

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
1

Jan 11
0

Jan 18
2026

1

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
5

Oct 11
0

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 11% 1/9 · avg 0.9
Away 33% 2/6 · avg 0.8
vs CHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 47% 7/15
O 1.5 Today 20% 3/15
O 2.5 7% 1/15
O 3.5 7% 1/15

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	4	5.4	-26%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	3	1.6	+88%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	6	4.8	+25%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	6	4.6	+30%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	3	6.4	-53%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	2	1.8	+11%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	6	6.7	-10%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	2	3.4	-41%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	3	5.3	-44%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	5	6.8	-26%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	8	5.3	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 8 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%10.0 yds	0%	22%23.5 yds
Short	22%2.8 yds	22%13.5 yds	22%6.5 yds

Last 8 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 15 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	0	Under	1.5	42 (62%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	5	Over	1.5	57 (76%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	2	Over	—	34 (45%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	1	Under	—	16 (25%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	1	Under	—	10 (18%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	22 (34%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	1	Under	0.5	14 (22%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	1	Under	—	26 (44%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	2	Over	—	41 (62%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	5 (7%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	0	Under	—	4 (6%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	0	Under	—	10 (15%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	0	Under	—	2 (3%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.