NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Juwan Johnson TE

NO vs NYG · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +117U -149

Hit rate · All 38%14/37 Odds imply 43.5% Over

Season avg: 5.0
Graph avg: 4.1
Graph median: 4.02–8
Over the close: 48%10/21

2026 per game

Targets6.4▲+0.4

Rec5.0▲+0.5

Rec Yds49.6▼-2.7

Rec TD0.6▲+0.4

Snaps49.0▼-1.0

Snap %68.2%▼-6.8

4.5

2024

2

Sep 08
2

Sep 29
5

Oct 07
3

Oct 13
3

Oct 17
3

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
3

Nov 17
5

Dec 01
4

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
2

Dec 23
6

Dec 29
6

Jan 05
2025

8

Sep 07
5

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
5

Oct 26
3

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
6

Nov 23
5

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
8

Dec 21
4

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
8

Sep 27
6

Oct 05
4

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 4.4
Away 28% 5/18 · avg 3.8
vs NYG 0% 0/2 · avg 3.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 78% 29/37
O 3.5 57% 21/37
O 4.5 Today 38% 14/37
O 5.5 22% 8/37
O 6.5 8% 3/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NYG

What NYG allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds54.4#14
Receptions5.5#13
Targets7.3#15
Yds/Target7.5#14
Rec TD0.2#25

TEs vs NYG · 2026

Each main TE who faced NYG this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.2

Avg diff %+7%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Chig Okonkwo	4	2.0	+100%
Oct 04	Trey McBride	7	8.8	-20%
Sep 27	Gunnar Helm	2	1.8	+14%
Sep 21	Davis Allen	1	1.2	-20%
Sep 13	Jake Ferguson	2	3.2	-38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	7%13.7 yds
Short	32%5.7 yds	15%8.7 yds	33%5.5 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYG defense

NYG defense: Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	2%21.6 yds#4	8%8.9 yds#26
Short	30%5.9 yds#15	15%8.2 yds#9	36%6.0 yds#9

Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%18.0 yds	9%29.6 yds
Short	31%6.0 yds	19%12.2 yds	40%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	5	10.8	54	27.9%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	5	7.4	37	19.7%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	5	6.4	32	16.8%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	4	4.0	16	11.1%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Bryce Lance WR	5	3.2	16	8.3%
7	Noah Fant TE	4	3.2	13	7.4%
8	Kendre Miller RB	4	1.5	6	3.5%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs MIN	4	Under	4.5	29 (64%)
2026-10-05	4	vs ATL	6	Over	4.5	58 (78%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	8	Over	3.5	46 (62%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	4	Under	3.5	36 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	@ DET	3	Under	4.5	76 (84%)
2026-01-04	18	@ ATL	3	Under	4.5	51 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	@ TEN	4	Under	4.5	39 (72%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NYJ	8	Over	8.5	51 (65%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CAR	4	Under	3.5	42 (61%)
2025-12-07	14	@ TB	4	Under	4.5	31 (53%)
2025-11-30	13	@ MIA	5	Over	4.5	52 (72%)
2025-11-23	12	vs ATL	6	Over	3.5	62 (78%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CAR	4	Under	3.5	34 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LA	3	Under	3.5	29 (71%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TB	5	Over	3.5	55 (76%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CHI	5	Over	5.5	40 (71%)
2025-10-12	6	vs NE	2	Under	2.5	40 (71%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NYG	2	Under	2.5	56 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	@ BUF	3	Under	3.5	60 (90%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SEA	6	Over	—	66 (90%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SF	5	Over	4.5	68 (96%)
2025-09-07	1	vs ARI	8	Over	2.5	74 (99%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TB	6	Over	—	52 (79%)
2024-12-29	17	vs LV	6	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-12-23	16	@ GB	2	Under	—	41 (73%)
2024-12-15	15	vs WAS	2	Under	—	40 (73%)
2024-12-08	14	@ NYG	4	Under	—	49 (72%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LA	5	Over	—	49 (70%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CLE	3	Under	—	34 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	vs ATL	2	Under	—	31 (58%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CAR	2	Under	—	51 (65%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LAC	3	Under	—	32 (44%)
2024-10-17	7	vs DEN	3	Under	—	51 (73%)
2024-10-13	6	vs TB	3	Under	—	54 (77%)
2024-10-07	5	@ KC	5	Over	—	42 (79%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ATL	2	Under	—	50 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	vs CAR	2	Under	—	23 (35%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.