NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brenton Strange TE

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

3.5 Receptions O -129U +101

Hit rate · All 38%12/32 Odds imply 53.1% Over

Season avg: 4.2
Graph avg: 3.4
Graph median: 3.00–11
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Targets5.2▲+0.2

Rec4.2▲+0.5

Rec Yds47.0▲+4.8

Rec TD0.2-0.0

Snaps49.4▲+0.2

Snap %79.2%▲+3.4

3.5

2024

3

Sep 15
2

Sep 23
3

Sep 29
4

Oct 06
1

Oct 13
5

Oct 27
2

Nov 10
1

Nov 17
1

Dec 01
1

Dec 08
11

Dec 15
2

Dec 22
0

Dec 29
4

Jan 05
2025

4

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
6

Sep 28
1

Oct 06
5

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
6

Jan 04
2

Jan 11
2026

2

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 3.6
Away 33% 5/15 · avg 3.2
vs HOU 33% 1/3 · avg 3.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 78% 25/32
O 2.5 59% 19/32
O 3.5 Today 38% 12/32
O 4.5 28% 9/32
O 5.5 19% 6/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds40.7#25
Receptions4.6#20
Targets6.8#22
Yds/Target6.0#27
Rec TD0.2#23

TEs vs HOU · 2026

Each main TE who faced HOU this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.9

Avg diff %+13%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Gunnar Helm	0	2.2	-100%
Oct 04	Jake Ferguson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Tyler Warren	9	5.2	+71%
Sep 13	Dalton Kincaid	5	2.8	+82%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%17.7 yds	0%	6%7.7 yds
Short	35%7.0 yds	27%7.6 yds	27%7.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	7	Over	3.5	58 (81%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	7	Over	3.5	53 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	3	Under	3.5	48 (77%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	2	Under	3.5	49 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	2	Under	3.5	39 (68%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	2	Under	2.5	49 (88%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	6	Over	6.5	38 (62%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	3	Under	3.5	56 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	5	Over	5.5	52 (74%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	1	Under	3.5	51 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	3	Under	3.5	51 (80%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	3	Under	3.5	53 (84%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	5	Over	2.5	44 (71%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	1	Under	3.5	22 (38%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	6	Over	3.5	50 (74%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	6	Over	4.5	58 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	3	Under	3.5	64 (90%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	4	Over	3.5	52 (79%)
2025-01-05	18	@ IND	4	Over	—	50 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs TEN	0	Under	—	42 (72%)
2024-12-22	16	@ LV	2	Under	—	34 (51%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NYJ	11	Over	—	69 (82%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TEN	1	Under	—	26 (44%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	1	Under	—	29 (41%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DET	1	Under	—	24 (50%)
2024-11-10	10	vs MIN	2	Under	—	18 (41%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	5	Over	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	1	Under	—	23 (37%)
2024-10-06	5	vs IND	4	Over	—	49 (84%)
2024-09-29	4	@ HOU	3	Under	—	42 (72%)
2024-09-23	3	@ BUF	2	Under	—	50 (70%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CLE	3	Under	—	41 (68%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.