NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Christian McCaffrey RB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -112U -114

Hit rate · All 61%17/28 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 3.8
Graph avg: 5.2
Graph median: 5.01–10
Over the close: 58%14/24

2026 per game

Carries12.2▼-5.5

Rush Yds57.2▼-10.4

Rush TD1.0▲+0.5

Targets5.0▼-2.5

Rec3.8▼-2.1

Rec Yds27.4▼-26.8

Snaps41.2▼-12.2

Snap %69.2%▼-12.5

4.5

2024

6

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
2

Dec 01
2025

9

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
10

Sep 21
6

Sep 28
8

Oct 02
7

Oct 12
7

Oct 19
3

Oct 26
5

Nov 02
8

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
7

Nov 24
4

Nov 30
1

Dec 14
6

Dec 22
4

Dec 28
6

Jan 03
6

Jan 11
5

Jan 17
2026

5

Sep 10
4

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 50% 6/12 · avg 5.3
Away 69% 11/16 · avg 5.2
vs WAS No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 93% 26/28
O 3.5 79% 22/28
O 4.5 Today 61% 17/28
O 5.5 46% 13/28
O 6.5 25% 7/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds102.7#9
Yds/Carry4.5#9
Rush TD0.8#11
Targets4.9#21
Rec Yds24.6#28

RBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main RB who faced WAS this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.6

Avg diff %-23%

Beat their average0% (0/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Skattebo	2	2.0	+0%
Oct 04	Jonathan Taylor	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 27	Jadarian Price	1	1.5	-33%
Sep 20	Javonte Williams	3	3.5	-14%
Sep 13	Saquon Barkley	1	1.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	0%	2%29.0 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	28%6.1 yds	35%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	3	Under	4.5	49 (82%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	3	Under	4.5	49 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	4	Under	4.5	45 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	4	Under	4.5	27 (52%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	5	Over	4.5	36 (55%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	5	Over	6.5	31 (52%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	6	Over	5.5	52 (88%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	6	Over	5.5	36 (86%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	4	Under	3.5	61 (85%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	6	Over	4.5	53 (80%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	1	Under	1.5	62 (84%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	4	Under	3.5	53 (79%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	7	Over	7.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	5	Over	5.5	39 (71%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	8	Over	7.5	49 (78%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	5	Over	5.5	57 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	3	Under	2.5	46 (96%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	7	Over	5.5	50 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	7	Over	6.5	64 (93%)
2025-10-02	5	@ LA	8	Over	6.5	76 (88%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	6	Over	5.5	56 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ARI	10	Over	9.5	59 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NO	6	Over	6.5	55 (77%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	9	Over	3.5	58 (76%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	2	Under	—	12 (25%)
2024-11-24	12	@ GB	3	Under	—	40 (82%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	4	Under	—	59 (94%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	6	Over	—	56 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.