NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ty Johnson RB

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +134U -171

Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 40.4% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 2.00–4
Over the close: 64%9/14

2026 per game

Carries0.5▼-2.4

Rush Yds1.5▼-10.3

Rush TD0.0▼-0.2

Targets3.0▲+1.1

Rec3.0▲+1.6

Rec Yds29.5▲+14.0

Snaps17.0▼-2.7

Snap %27.5%▼-2.1

2024

1

Jan 26
2025

0

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
1

Sep 18
0

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
1

Oct 13
0

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
3

Nov 20
3

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
2026

4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 14% 3/21 · avg 1.3
Away 28% 5/18 · avg 1.4
vs LAR 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 70% 14/20
O 1.5 55% 11/20
O 2.5 Today 25% 5/20
O 3.5 5% 1/20
O 4.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.4#15
Yds/Carry4.4#17
Rush TD0.6#17
Targets6.7#5
Rec Yds41.8#2

RBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+30%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Will Shipley	0	1.3	-100%
Sep 27	RJ Harvey	6	7.0	-14%
Sep 21	Cam Skattebo	4	1.3	+200%
Sep 10	Christian McCaffrey	5	3.7	+36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%23.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	53%10.6 yds	10%7.7 yds	33%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	2	Under	1.5	19 (32%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	4	Over	1.5	15 (23%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	2	Under	—	25 (33%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	3	Over	1.5	29 (38%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	16 (32%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Over	1.5	18 (26%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	2	Under	1.5	16 (25%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	3	Over	2.5	20 (27%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	3	Over	2.5	23 (35%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	2	Under	2.5	18 (32%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	2	Under	—	27 (40%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	2	Under	0.5	13 (20%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	0	Under	—	20 (32%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	1	Under	—	24 (42%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	0	Under	—	12 (18%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	0	Under	0.5	12 (20%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	1	Under	0.5	15 (25%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	0	Under	1.5	19 (25%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	0	Under	0.5	28 (33%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	1	Under	—	30 (41%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.