NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Downs WR

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -153U +119

Hit rate · All 41%14/34 Odds imply 57.0% Over

Season avg: 4.2
Graph avg: 4.3
Graph median: 4.01–10
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets7.0▲+1.5

Rec4.2▲+0.6

Rec Yds50.5▲+15.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps50.2▲+13.1

Snap %79.2%▲+20.6

2024

3

Sep 22
8

Sep 29
9

Oct 06
7

Oct 13
1

Oct 20
4

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
7

Nov 10
5

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
3

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
3

Dec 29
10

Jan 05
2025

2

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
6

Oct 12
3

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
2

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
5

Dec 22
2

Dec 28
4

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 4.2
Away 38% 6/16 · avg 4.5
vs PIT 100% 2/2 · avg 7.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 76% 26/34
O 3.5 53% 18/34
O 4.5 Today 41% 14/34
O 5.5 32% 11/34
O 6.5 18% 6/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds154.0#11
Receptions10.4#20
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.0

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	KC Concepcion	5	4.0	+25%
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	4	3.0	+33%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	6	6.3	-5%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	9	4.0	+125%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	2	4.3	-54%
Sep 20	Romeo Doubs	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Drake London	2	6.0	-67%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	1	1.7	-40%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%9.0 yds	2%18.0 yds	8%6.0 yds
Short	23%4.5 yds	21%7.5 yds	34%7.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	3	Under	6.5	51 (77%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	5	Over	4.5	48 (68%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	7	Over	4.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	2	Under	4.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	4	Under	—	41 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	2	Under	3.5	35 (61%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	5	Over	5.5	47 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	3	Under	2.5	43 (72%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	4	Under	3.5	46 (66%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	2	Under	2.5	31 (57%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	2	Under	3.5	22 (43%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	36 (47%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	6	Over	3.5	52 (67%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	3	Under	3.5	34 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	6	Over	6.5	30 (51%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	6	Over	3.5	33 (50%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	4	Under	3.5	38 (62%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	2	Under	4.5	29 (51%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	6	Over	6.5	41 (58%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	2	Under	4.5	36 (49%)
2025-01-05	18	vs JAX	10	Over	—	59 (76%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NYG	3	Under	—	47 (61%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TEN	3	Under	—	36 (58%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DEN	3	Under	—	58 (76%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DET	3	Under	—	29 (53%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NYJ	5	Over	—	48 (69%)
2024-11-10	10	vs BUF	7	Over	—	44 (69%)
2024-11-03	9	@ MIN	6	Over	—	27 (50%)
2024-10-27	8	@ HOU	4	Under	—	45 (70%)
2024-10-20	7	vs MIA	1	Under	—	38 (61%)
2024-10-13	6	@ TEN	7	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-10-06	5	@ JAX	9	Over	—	43 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PIT	8	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CHI	3	Under	—	32 (57%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 5Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.