NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dontayvion Wicks WR

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

3.5 Receptions O -125U -102

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 52.4% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.01–6
Over the close: 33%2/6

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+1.5

Rec3.0▲+0.7

Rec Yds49.2▲+23.7

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps49.2▲+18.3

Snap %83.2%▲+36.0

2024

4

Dec 29
5

Jan 05
2

Jan 12
2025

2

Sep 07
4

Sep 11
2

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
4

Nov 10
1

Nov 16
2

Nov 23
6

Nov 27
1

Dec 14
2

Dec 20
1

Dec 27
2026

2

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 28
3

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 29% 5/17 · avg 2.6
Away 22% 4/18 · avg 2.1
vs JAX 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 16/20
O 2.5 35% 7/20
O 3.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 4.5 15% 3/20
O 5.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds173.4#4
Receptions14.1#1
Targets22.1#2
Yds/Target7.8#17
Rec TD0.3#32

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8

Avg diff %+29%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	3	6.0	-50%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	11	4.7	+136%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	Romeo Doubs	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	3.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaylen Waddle	8	2.7	+200%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	4	4.3	-8%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	2	3.7	-45%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.0 yds	10%6.8 yds	16%22.2 yds
Short	29%5.3 yds	10%5.2 yds	24%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	3	Under	3.5	56 (92%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	2	Under	3.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	5	Over	2.5	47 (62%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	2	Under	2.5	50 (91%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	1	Under	1.5	3 (6%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	2	Under	1.5	30 (42%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DEN	1	Under	—	28 (42%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DET	6	Over	—	31 (49%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	2	Under	—	32 (48%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	1	Under	—	31 (56%)
2025-11-10	10	vs PHI	4	Over	—	44 (65%)
2025-10-19	7	@ ARI	1	Under	—	15 (27%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CIN	2	Under	—	21 (34%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DAL	2	Under	—	64 (77%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CLE	2	Under	—	44 (68%)
2025-09-11	2	vs WAS	4	Over	—	37 (54%)
2025-09-07	1	vs DET	2	Under	—	22 (46%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ PHI	2	Under	—	51 (77%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	5	Over	—	48 (74%)
2024-12-29	17	@ MIN	4	Over	—	46 (73%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.