NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Isaac TeSlaa WR

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +133U -170

Hit rate · All 22%4/18 Odds imply 40.5% Over

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 1.4
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 44%7/16

2026 per game

Targets4.2▲+2.3

Rec2.2▲+1.1

Rec Yds46.8▲+29.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps47.5▲+19.2

Snap %68.2%▲+25.2

2025

1

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
0

Sep 22
1

Oct 05
0

Oct 20
1

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
2

Nov 27
2

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
3

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 13
2

Sep 17
3

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 25% 2/8 · avg 1.5
Away 20% 2/10 · avg 1.3
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 67% 12/18
O 1.5 39% 7/18
O 2.5 Today 22% 4/18
O 3.5 11% 2/18
O 4.5 0% 0/18

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds143.1#15
Receptions9.8#26
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.2#5
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	4.7	-36%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.7	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	7.7	+17%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.3	-10%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.3	+114%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%22.0 yds	9%25.7 yds	9%0.0 yds
Short	31%4.8 yds	17%8.3 yds	17%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 18 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	4	Over	1.5	58 (82%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	3	Over	1.5	31 (48%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	2	Under	1.5	49 (75%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	0	Under	1.5	52 (68%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	1	Under	1.5	44 (60%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	3	Over	1.5	33 (52%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	4	Over	0.5	41 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	0	Under	1.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	2	Under	2.5	48 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	2	Under	—	58 (92%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	0	Under	0.5	28 (41%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	0	Under	0.5	20 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	1	Under	1.5	20 (29%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	0	Under	0.5	9 (13%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	1	Under	0.5	21 (34%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	0	Under	1.5	14 (21%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	1	Under	0.5	17 (29%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	1	Under	—	3 (4%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.