NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jonathan Taylor RB

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -105U -122

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 48.2% Over

Season avg: 2.5
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 3.00–5
Over the close: 47%9/19

2026 per game

Carries21.5▲+2.5

Rush Yds88.2▼-5.0

Rush TD1.5▲+0.4

Targets3.8▲+0.5

Rec2.5▼-0.2

Rec Yds17.2▼-5.0

Snaps54.0▲+2.1

Snap %84.7%▲+2.2

2025

2

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
2

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
2

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
3

Dec 22
3

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 2.1
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 2.1
vs PIT 50% 1/2 · avg 2.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 95% 19/20
O 1.5 90% 18/20
O 2.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 3.5 15% 3/20
O 4.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds98.9#13
Yds/Carry4.5#12
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.3#8
Rec Yds34.3#13

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+65%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Quinshon Judkins	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	2	6.3	-68%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	1	3.7	-73%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	8	2.0	+300%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	53%5.8 yds	5%10.0 yds	40%3.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	1	Under	2.5	47 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	2	Under	2.5	60 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	4	Over	2.5	61 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	3	Over	2.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	2	Under	—	34 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	3	Over	3.5	51 (89%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	3	Over	3.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	3	Over	2.5	51 (85%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	0	Under	2.5	52 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	3	Over	3.5	53 (98%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	2	Under	2.5	46 (90%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	3	Over	3.5	70 (91%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	2	Under	1.5	62 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	2	Under	1.5	40 (75%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	3	Over	4.5	52 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	4	Over	2.5	54 (92%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	3	Over	2.5	49 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	5	Over	2.5	53 (87%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	3	Over	2.5	45 (79%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	2	Under	2.5	66 (93%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 17m ago.