NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bijan Robinson RB

ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -128U +100

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 52.9% Over

Season avg: 3.5
Graph avg: 4.3
Graph median: 4.01–8
Over the close: 45%9/20

2026 per game

Carries21.2▲+4.4

Rush Yds123.5▲+36.6

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.5▼-1.6

Rec3.5▼-1.1

Rec Yds30.0▼-18.2

Snaps41.5▼-9.1

Snap %65.0%▼-13.2

2025

3

Sep 14
5

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
6

Oct 13
6

Oct 19
3

Oct 26
8

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
4

Nov 16
2

Nov 23
5

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
8

Dec 11
7

Dec 21
5

Dec 29
3

Jan 04
2026

8

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
2

Sep 24
1

Oct 05
?

Oct 12

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 3.9
Away 50% 10/20 · avg 4.2
vs BAL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 95% 19/20
O 2.5 75% 15/20
O 3.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 4.5 45% 9/20
O 5.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.4#30
Yds/Carry3.6#27
Rush TD0.8#12
Targets7.2#2
Rec Yds35.6#10

RBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main RB who faced BAL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-18%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tony Pollard	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 27	Javonte Williams	2	3.8	-47%
Sep 20	Travis Etienne	2	4.5	-56%
Sep 13	Jonathan Taylor	3	2.3	+29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.6 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%9.8 yds
Short	36%6.7 yds	18%6.4 yds	28%5.9 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.8 yds#2	5%16.8 yds#11	7%15.6 yds#3
Short	31%5.3 yds#23	17%5.7 yds#27	35%5.3 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	57%7.4 yds	12%7.4 yds	28%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	4	6.2	25	27.7%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	4	4.5	18	21.1%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	4	3.2	13	14.2%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	4	2.2	9	9.7%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	4	1.8	7	7.2%
7	Zachariah Branch WR	4	1.5	6	6.3%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	2	1.0	2	4.1%
9	Brian Robinson RB	4	0.8	3	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	1	Under	4.5	34 (60%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	2	Under	4.5	51 (72%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	3	Under	4.5	35 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	8	Over	4.5	46 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	3	Under	4.5	53 (84%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	5	Over	4.5	42 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	7	Over	5.5	54 (70%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	8	Over	4.5	64 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	2	Under	4.5	43 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	5	Over	3.5	60 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	2	Under	5.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	4	Over	4.5	56 (85%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	2	Under	1.5	54 (86%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	8	Over	8.5	54 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	3	Under	4.5	30 (60%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	6	Over	6.5	57 (88%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	6	Over	4.5	52 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	4	Over	2.5	45 (69%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	5	Over	4.5	53 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	3	Under	3.5	43 (65%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.