NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trey McBride TE

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

7.5 Receptions O -140U +110

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 55.1% Over

Season avg: 8.2
Graph avg: 7.7
Graph median: 8.04–12
Over the close: 61%11/18

2026 per game

Targets11.5▲+1.6

Rec8.2▲+0.8

Rec Yds60.5▼-12.4

Rec TD0.5▼-0.1

Snaps61.8▲+1.0

Snap %89.0%▼-2.4

2025

6

Sep 14
5

Sep 21
7

Sep 25
5

Oct 05
8

Oct 12
10

Oct 19
5

Nov 03
9

Nov 09
10

Nov 16
9

Nov 23
8

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
12

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
7

Jan 04
2026

9

Sep 13
8

Sep 20
9

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 29% 5/17 · avg 6.4
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 8.1
vs DET 0% 0/1 · avg 3.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 75% 15/20
O 6.5 70% 14/20
O 7.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 8.5 40% 8/20
O 9.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DET

What DET allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds77.8#2
Receptions7.5#1
Targets10.4#1
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.9#4

TEs vs DET · 2026

Each main TE who faced DET this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.6

Avg diff %+106%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Darren Waller	3	3.3	-10%
Sep 27	Kenyon Sadiq	7	1.7	+320%
Sep 17	Dalton Kincaid	7	2.7	+163%
Sep 13	Juwan Johnson	3	6.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%9.8 yds	3%18.0 yds	8%6.8 yds
Short	24%5.1 yds	22%7.2 yds	38%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	7	Under	6.5	64 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	9	Over	7.5	79 (91%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	8	Over	6.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	9	Over	6.5	60 (80%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	7	Under	6.5	52 (95%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	10	Over	8.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	4	Under	4.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	12	Over	12.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	5	Under	7.5	60 (97%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	8	Over	6.5	54 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	9	Over	8.5	74 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	10	Over	7.5	70 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	9	Over	6.5	64 (84%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	5	Under	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	10	Over	—	66 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	8	Over	8.5	66 (90%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	5	Under	6.5	61 (90%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	7	Under	6.5	64 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	5	Under	6.5	58 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	6	Under	6.5	50 (91%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 8Underdog 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.