NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -129U +101

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 53.1% Over

Season avg: 5.5
Graph avg: 4.5
Graph median: 3.51–11
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds88.2▲+16.3

Rush TD1.2▲+0.5

Targets7.0▲+1.5

Rec5.5▲+1.0

Rec Yds46.8▲+10.5

Snaps54.5▲+11.1

Snap %78.2%▲+11.2

2025

3

Sep 14
5

Sep 22
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
3

Oct 20
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
11

Nov 23
3

Nov 27
7

Dec 04
4

Dec 14
10

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

5

Sep 13
6

Sep 17
7

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 4.5
Away 21% 4/19 · avg 3.5
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 16/20
O 3.5 50% 10/20
O 4.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 5.5 25% 5/20
O 6.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds123.2#2
Yds/Carry4.6#9
Rush TD0.9#9
Targets5.3#15
Rec Yds34.9#11

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.3

Avg diff %-52%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	1	2.3	-57%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	4	4.0	+0%
Sep 20	George Holani	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 13	Keaton Mitchell	0	3.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	34%4.7 yds	39%7.9 yds	27%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	4	Under	4.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	7	Over	4.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	6	Over	4.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	5	Over	4.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	3	Under	3.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	2	Under	4.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	10	Over	5.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	4	Under	5.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	7	Over	7.5	43 (69%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	3	Under	—	44 (70%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	11	Over	8.5	50 (74%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	5	Over	5.5	43 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	3	Under	3.5	35 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	3	Under	4.5	42 (66%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	3	Under	3.5	38 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	1	Under	1.5	37 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	2	Under	3.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	2	Under	3.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	5	Over	5.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	3	Under	2.5	33 (56%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.