NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylin Noel WR

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -150U +118

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 56.7% Over

Season avg: 2.0
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 1.00–5
Over the close: 36%5/14

2026 per game

Targets3.0▲+1.1

Rec2.0▲+0.6

Rec Yds46.5▲+31.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps30.0▲+13.4

Snap %44.5%▲+20.3

2025

1

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
4

Oct 20
5

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
1

Nov 20
0

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
3

Dec 27
1

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
0

Jan 18
2026

2

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 33% 4/12 · avg 1.5
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 1.5
vs TEN 0% 0/2 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 70% 14/20
O 1.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 2.5 25% 5/20
O 3.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds161.7#8
Receptions11.5#11
Targets16.3#26
Yds/Target9.9#1
Rec TD1.0#10

WRs vs TEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced TEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Zay Flowers	8	5.0	+60%
Oct 04	Rashod Bateman	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 27	Malik Nabers	5	4.3	+15%
Sep 27	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 20	DeVonta Smith	10	4.5	+122%
Sep 20	Makai Lemon	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 13	Garrett Wilson	6	6.0	+0%
Sep 13	Isaiah Williams	1	3.0	-67%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	18%31.5 yds	4%0.0 yds	4%22.0 yds
Short	27%3.8 yds	23%11.8 yds	23%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	3	Over	1.5	34 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	2	Over	2.5	14 (26%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	1	Under	2.5	48 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	2	Over	1.5	24 (30%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	0	Under	1.5	6 (8%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	6 (9%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	1	Under	1.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	3	Over	0.5	16 (25%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	0	Under	—	9 (14%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	0	Under	1.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	2	Over	—	25 (36%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	1.5	18 (24%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	1	Under	0.5	17 (29%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	1	Under	1.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	4	Over	—	25 (33%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	11 (15%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	5	Over	3.5	31 (39%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	4	Over	—	33 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	2	Over	—	21 (30%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	1	Under	—	17 (24%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.