NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ashton Jeanty RB

LV vs NE · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 4.8
Graph avg: 3.6
Graph median: 3.00–8
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Carries19.5▲+3.9

Rush Yds66.0▲+8.6

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets6.0▲+1.7

Rec4.8▲+1.5

Rec Yds41.2▲+20.9

Snaps54.0▲+8.6

Snap %76.5%▼-1.4

2025

3

Sep 15
0

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
5

Nov 02
3

Nov 06
6

Nov 17
8

Nov 23
6

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

6

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 46% 5/11 · avg 4.1
Away 20% 2/10 · avg 2.9
vs NE 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 65% 13/20
O 3.5 45% 9/20
O 4.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 5.5 25% 5/20
O 6.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs NE

What NE allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds80.5#25
Yds/Carry3.9#22
Rush TD0.4#25
Targets5.1#20
Rec Yds27.4#22

RBs vs NE · 2026

Each main RB who faced NE this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.8

Avg diff %-19%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	James Cook	2	1.3	+50%
Sep 27	Bhayshul Tuten	2	1.7	+20%
Sep 20	Jaylen Warren	2	3.7	-45%
Sep 09	George Holani	0	2.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.4 yds	3%5.3 yds	6%8.0 yds
Short	28%6.1 yds	19%6.3 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%4.0 yds#32	4%10.5 yds#28	5%9.4 yds#24
Short	31%5.3 yds#24	17%7.0 yds#16	37%4.2 yds#32

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%60.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	33%6.6 yds	29%3.5 yds	35%3.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	2	12.0	24	33.1%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	4	6.0	24	17.9%
3	Michael Mayer TE	4	6.0	24	17.2%
4	Tre Tucker WR	4	5.8	23	17.0%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	4	2.5	10	7.2%
8	Ian Thomas TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
9	Malik Benson WR	4	1.0	4	3.4%
10	Dareke Young WR	4	0.8	3	1.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	6	Over	3.5	56 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	3	Under	3.5	59 (84%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	4	Under	3.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	6	Over	3.5	50 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	3	Under	2.5	60 (97%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	2	Under	3.5	48 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	1	Under	3.5	50 (93%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	4	Under	3.5	30 (71%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	2	Under	4.5	35 (70%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	6	Over	5.5	46 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	8	Over	7.5	64 (81%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	6	Over	3.5	44 (73%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	3	Under	2.5	52 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	5	Over	4.5	58 (91%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	1	Under	3.5	22 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	2	Under	2.5	48 (79%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	5	Over	2.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	2	Under	2.5	44 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	0	Under	0.5	40 (61%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	3	Under	2.5	39 (56%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 5m ago.