NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Sam LaPorta TE

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -147U +115

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 56.1% Over

Season avg: 5.5
Graph avg: 5.0
Graph median: 5.03–8
Over the close: 58%7/12

2026 per game

Targets8.0▲+2.6

Rec5.5▲+1.1

Rec Yds57.0▲+2.7

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps60.5▲+3.1

Snap %87.5%▼-3.2

2024

3

Nov 28
5

Dec 05
7

Dec 15
4

Dec 22
6

Dec 30
7

Jan 05
6

Jan 18
2025

6

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
4

Sep 22
3

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
5

Oct 12
3

Oct 20
6

Nov 02
5

Nov 09
2026

5

Sep 13
6

Sep 17
3

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 47% 7/15 · avg 4.5
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 4.1
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 100% 20/20
O 3.5 75% 15/20
O 4.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 5.5 40% 8/20
O 6.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds70.8#3
Receptions6.5#4
Targets8.4#5
Yds/Target8.4#5
Rec TD0.9#2

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.7

Avg diff %+11%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	7	5.0	+40%
Sep 27	George Kittle	6	3.3	+80%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	1	2.7	-62%
Sep 13	Oronde Gadsden II	2	2.3	-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	3%33.5 yds	5%9.3 yds
Short	30%6.7 yds	27%10.2 yds	36%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	8	Over	4.5	56 (79%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	3	Under	4.5	60 (92%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	6	Over	4.5	64 (98%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	5	Over	4.5	62 (81%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	5	Over	4.5	53 (76%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	6	Over	6.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	3	Under	4.5	66 (97%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	5	Over	4.5	52 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	5	Over	3.5	58 (94%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	3	Under	3.5	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	4	Under	4.5	57 (84%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	3	Under	2.5	50 (85%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	6	Over	—	61 (91%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	6	Over	—	67 (97%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	7	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	6	Over	—	66 (93%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	4	Under	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	7	Over	—	77 (97%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	5	Over	—	72 (90%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	3	Under	—	66 (94%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 5Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.