NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Will Shipley RB

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

2.5 Receptions O -109U -117

Hit rate · Last 20 0%0/20 Odds imply 49.2% Over

Season avg: 1.0
Graph avg: 0.7
Graph median: 1.00–2
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Carries3.8▲+2.8

Rush Yds12.8▲+9.5

Rush TD0.0+0.0

Targets1.5▲+0.6

Rec1.0▲+0.3

Rec Yds6.0▲+1.9

Snaps22.8▲+15.3

Snap %35.8%▲+23.7

2024

0

Feb 09
2025

0

Sep 04
0

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
0

Oct 09
1

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
2

Nov 10
0

Nov 23
1

Nov 28
1

Dec 08
0

Dec 14
1

Dec 20
0

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
1

Jan 11
2026

1

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
1

Sep 28
0

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 5% 1/19 · avg 0.5
Away 0% 0/16 · avg 0.5
vs JAX 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 55% 11/20
O 1.5 15% 3/20
O 2.5 Today 0% 0/20
O 3.5 0% 0/20
O 4.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds62.8#32
Yds/Carry3.5#29
Rush TD0.5#22
Targets6.5#6
Rec Yds34.7#12

RBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main RB who faced JAX this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.5

Avg diff %+52%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Chase Brown	11	3.3	+230%
Sep 27	Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 20	Tyler Badie	2	1.5	+33%
Sep 13	Quinshon Judkins	2	4.3	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	40%5.5 yds	7%6.0 yds	53%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	0	Under	0.5	29 (48%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	1	Under	0.5	13 (26%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	2	Under	1.5	39 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	1	Under	—	10 (18%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	1	Under	0.5	3 (4%)
2026-01-04	18	vs WAS	2	Under	—	26 (41%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	0	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	1	Under	—	8 (11%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	0	Under	—	4 (6%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	1	Under	—	7 (10%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	1	Under	—	4 (7%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	0	Under	—	8 (13%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	2	Under	—	12 (19%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	0	Under	—	8 (14%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	1	Under	—	8 (16%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	0	Under	—	3 (5%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	1	Under	—	8 (13%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	0	Under	—	3 (5%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	0	Under	0.5	5 (8%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	0	Under	—	3 (4%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.