NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Gunnar Helm TE

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +103U -131

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 46.5% Over

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.01–6
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets3.0▼-0.4

Rec2.2▼-0.5

Rec Yds15.0▼-7.3

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps44.8▲+11.4

Snap %79.2%▲+26.7

2025

1

Sep 07
2

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 19
2

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
4

Nov 16
6

Nov 23
6

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
2026

4

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 3.2
Away 22% 2/9 · avg 2.0
vs HOU 50% 1/2 · avg 2.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 20/20
O 1.5 70% 14/20
O 2.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 3.5 35% 7/20
O 4.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds54.0#15
Receptions6.0#8
Targets8.1#8
Yds/Target6.7#20
Rec TD0.4#11

TEs vs HOU · 2026

Each main TE who faced HOU this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.0

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average67% (2/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jake Ferguson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Tyler Warren	9	4.7	+93%
Sep 13	Dalton Kincaid	5	3.3	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	3%34.0 yds
Short	32%4.4 yds	16%5.0 yds	46%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	1	Under	2.5	46 (72%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	2	Under	2.5	49 (82%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	2	Under	2.5	46 (87%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	4	Over	2.5	38 (76%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	1	Under	1.5	43 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	2	Under	2.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	4	Over	3.5	26 (49%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	1	Under	1.5	44 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	6	Over	4.5	31 (53%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	6	Over	2.5	48 (63%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	4	Over	1.5	38 (64%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	21 (45%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	2	Under	1.5	37 (52%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	4	Over	1.5	28 (53%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	2	Under	2.5	29 (48%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	4	Over	1.5	44 (66%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	1	Under	—	20 (40%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	3	Over	1.5	27 (39%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	2	Under	1.5	22 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	1	Under	1.5	23 (40%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.