NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Pat Freiermuth TE

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +127U -162

Hit rate · Last 20 20%4/20 Odds imply 41.6% Over

Season avg: 3.5
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 3.01–5
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets4.8▲+1.2

Rec3.5▲+0.9

Rec Yds31.2▼-0.2

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps46.5▲+13.4

Snap %68.5%▲+15.0

2025

3

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
1

Oct 12
5

Oct 16
3

Oct 26
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
2

Dec 07
3

Dec 15
4

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
1

Jan 12
2026

5

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
3

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 3.1
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 3.4
vs IND 50% 1/2 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 16/20
O 2.5 70% 14/20
O 3.5 Today 20% 4/20
O 4.5 10% 2/20
O 5.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs IND

What IND allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds60.1#8
Receptions5.4#13
Targets7.7#15
Yds/Target7.8#9
Rec TD0.3#18

TEs vs IND · 2026

Each main TE who faced IND this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.6

Avg diff %+30%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Colson Yankoff	0	0.7	-100%
Sep 27	Dalton Schultz	3	6.0	-50%
Sep 20	Travis Kelce	9	2.3	+286%
Sep 13	Mark Andrews	4	4.7	-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%0.0 yds	9%18.0 yds	9%4.8 yds
Short	32%7.1 yds	18%10.4 yds	25%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	3	Under	3.5	54 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	2	Under	3.5	37 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	4	Over	3.5	46 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	5	Over	2.5	49 (73%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	39 (68%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	3	Under	2.5	52 (69%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	3	Under	2.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	4	Over	4.5	32 (43%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	3	Under	2.5	28 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	2	Under	1.5	31 (60%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	3	Under	1.5	34 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	1	Under	2.5	30 (46%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	3	Under	2.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	3	Under	3.5	29 (47%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	3	Under	—	27 (43%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	5	Over	1.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	1	Under	1.5	21 (36%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	1	Under	2.5	38 (70%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	3	Under	3.5	31 (50%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	3	Under	2.5	28 (50%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.