NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Hunter Henry TE

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -125U -102

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 52.4% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 3.2
Graph median: 3.01–7
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Targets3.8▼-1.1

Rec3.0▼-0.3

Rec Yds33.2▼-8.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps49.2▼-1.6

Snap %75.2%▼-3.4

2025

3

Oct 12
4

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
4

Nov 13
7

Nov 23
4

Dec 01
1

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
1

Jan 18
2

Jan 25
3

Feb 08
2026

3

Sep 09
3

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 3.7
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 3.5
vs LV 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 75% 15/20
O 2.5 70% 14/20
O 3.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 4.5 20% 4/20
O 5.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LV

What LV allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds40.5#24
Receptions5.1#18
Targets6.6#24
Yds/Target6.1#24
Rec TD0.8#5

TEs vs LV · 2026

Each main TE who faced LV this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.2

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Travis Kelce	2	4.7	-57%
Sep 27	Juwan Johnson	8	4.3	+85%
Sep 20	Oronde Gadsden II	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 13	Greg Dulcich	2	3.5	-43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%18.5 yds	0%	5%8.0 yds
Short	24%9.7 yds	32%6.0 yds	29%9.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	5	Over	3.5	49 (64%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	1	Under	3.5	44 (70%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	3	Under	3.5	50 (91%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	3	Under	3.5	54 (76%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	3	Under	3.5	51 (72%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	2	Under	3.5	44 (69%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	1	Under	3.5	47 (72%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	3	Under	3.5	56 (88%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	5	Over	3.5	34 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	3	Under	4.5	43 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	6	Over	6.5	60 (81%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	1	Under	3.5	45 (87%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	4	Over	3.5	49 (75%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	7	Over	5.5	56 (79%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	4	Over	4.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	1	Under	1.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	4	Over	3.5	51 (75%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	1	Under	3.5	52 (76%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	4	Over	3.5	44 (68%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	3	Under	3.5	53 (83%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.