NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Warren TE

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

5.5 Receptions O +118U -150

Hit rate · All 24%5/21 Odds imply 43.3% Over

Season avg: 5.8
Graph avg: 4.7
Graph median: 5.02–9
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Targets6.8▲+0.2

Rec5.8▲+1.3

Rec Yds32.5▼-15.6

Rec TD0.5▲+0.3

Snaps57.8▲+4.9

Snap %90.2%▲+6.4

2025

7

Sep 07
4

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
6

Oct 12
4

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
5

Nov 02
8

Nov 09
5

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
3

Dec 22
5

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
6

Sep 20
9

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 36% 4/11 · avg 5.1
Away 10% 1/10 · avg 4.3
vs PIT 0% 0/1 · avg 5.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 71% 15/21
O 4.5 52% 11/21
O 5.5 Today 24% 5/21
O 6.5 14% 3/21
O 7.5 10% 2/21

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds52.8#16
Receptions5.1#19
Targets7.1#18
Yds/Target7.4#13
Rec TD0.6#8

TEs vs PIT · 2026

Each main TE who faced PIT this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.1

Avg diff %-40%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Harold Fannin Jr.	3	4.7	-36%
Sep 27	Mike Gesicki	3	4.0	-25%
Sep 20	Hunter Henry	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Kyle Pitts	0	1.7	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	38%4.4 yds	28%5.7 yds	31%3.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 21 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	5	Under	5.5	56 (85%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	9	Over	4.5	67 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	6	Over	4.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	3	Under	4.5	50 (93%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	5	Under	—	53 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	5	Under	5.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	3	Under	3.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	3	Under	3.5	49 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	2	Under	4.5	65 (93%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	3	Under	4.5	47 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	5	Under	4.5	44 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	8	Over	4.5	68 (88%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	5	Under	5.5	66 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	4	Under	3.5	39 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	4	Under	4.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	6	Over	6.5	52 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	4	Under	4.5	47 (71%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	5	Under	5.5	54 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	3	Under	4.5	39 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	4	Under	4.5	66 (93%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	7	Over	3.5	53 (73%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.