NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Schultz TE

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +116U -148

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 43.7% Over

Season avg: 5.2
Graph avg: 4.8
Graph median: 4.51–12
Over the close: 58%11/19

2026 per game

Targets6.8▲+0.9

Rec5.2▲+0.7

Rec Yds53.5▲+9.5

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps42.5▼-4.5

Snap %63.0%▼-5.6

2025

5

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
9

Oct 20
2

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
7

Nov 09
6

Nov 16
1

Nov 20
7

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
8

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
3

Dec 27
4

Jan 04
3

Jan 12
2

Jan 18
2026

4

Sep 13
12

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 29% 6/21 · avg 4.0
Away 38% 8/21 · avg 4.0
vs TEN 50% 2/4 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 16/20
O 3.5 60% 12/20
O 4.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 5.5 35% 7/20
O 6.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds55.5#14
Receptions5.4#14
Targets7.1#19
Yds/Target7.8#8
Rec TD0.7#7

TEs vs TEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced TEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.2

Avg diff %+44%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Mark Andrews	5	4.3	+15%
Sep 27	Isaiah Likely	2	6.7	-70%
Sep 20	Johnny Mundt	2	0.5	+300%
Sep 13	Jeremy Ruckert	1	3.5	-71%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%25.0 yds	4%8.5 yds
Short	29%8.6 yds	16%10.4 yds	49%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	2	Under	4.5	35 (64%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	3	Under	5.5	29 (54%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	12	Over	4.5	54 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	4	Under	3.5	52 (66%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	2	Under	4.5	12 (16%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	3	Under	3.5	54 (79%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	4	Under	4.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	3	Under	2.5	51 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	5	Over	4.5	46 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	8	Over	3.5	53 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	3	Under	3.5	52 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	7	Over	4.5	55 (72%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	1	Under	1.5	48 (81%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	6	Over	4.5	48 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	7	Over	4.5	58 (77%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	6	Over	3.5	58 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	2	Under	5.5	49 (61%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	9	Over	—	57 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	5	Over	3.5	41 (59%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	5	Over	3.5	60 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.