NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Evan Engram TE

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +116U -148

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 43.7% Over

Season avg: 1.5
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 2.50–6
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Targets3.2▼-1.3

Rec1.5▼-1.4

Rec Yds16.5▼-10.6

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps37.0▲+8.6

Snap %60.5%▲+18.6

2025

4

Sep 29
4

Oct 05
5

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
2

Nov 06
4

Nov 16
6

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
4

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
1

Jan 17
2

Jan 25
2026

4

Sep 14
1

Sep 20
0

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 59% 10/17 · avg 3.2
Away 64% 9/14 · avg 3.7
vs LAC 100% 1/1 · avg 3.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 70% 14/20
O 2.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 3.5 45% 9/20
O 4.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds48.7#20
Receptions4.5#23
Targets6.5#26
Yds/Target7.5#11
Rec TD0.2#28

TEs vs LAC · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.4

Avg diff %-38%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	AJ Barner	1	2.7	-62%
Sep 27	Dalton Kincaid	2	4.3	-54%
Sep 20	Michael Mayer	3	5.7	-47%
Sep 13	Trey McBride	9	8.0	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%26.5 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%3.6 yds	29%3.7 yds	24%2.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	1	Under	2.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	0	Under	2.5	40 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	1	Under	2.5	32 (52%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	4	Over	2.5	32 (63%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	2	Under	2.5	19 (33%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	1	Under	2.5	34 (47%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	3	Over	3.5	23 (39%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	4	Over	3.5	22 (31%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	2	Under	2.5	29 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	1	Under	—	19 (28%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	2	Under	2.5	27 (36%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	6	Over	3.5	38 (54%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	4	Over	4.5	25 (40%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	2	Under	1.5	27 (44%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	0	Under	1.5	32 (51%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	4	Over	3.5	27 (43%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	5	Over	3.5	45 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	5	Over	5.5	28 (47%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	4	Over	2.5	30 (41%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	4	Over	2.5	35 (43%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.