NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dawson Knox TE

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O +118U -151

Hit rate · All 54%21/39 Odds imply 43.3% Over

Season avg: 1.5
Graph avg: 1.9
Graph median: 2.00–6
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Targets1.5▼-1.7

Rec1.5▼-0.8

Rec Yds7.5▼-19.1

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps44.2▲+5.3

Snap %68.5%▲+10.2

2024

1

Sep 08
1

Sep 23
1

Sep 29
1

Oct 14
1

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
1

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
2

Dec 01
1

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
2

Dec 22
1

Dec 29
2

Jan 12
1

Jan 19
1

Jan 26
2025

2

Sep 07
2

Sep 14
0

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
1

Oct 13
1

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
3

Nov 20
3

Nov 30
6

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
5

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
3

Jan 17
2026

1

Sep 13
2

Sep 17
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 1.9
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 1.9
vs LAR 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 97% 38/39
O 1.5 Today 54% 21/39
O 2.5 23% 9/39
O 3.5 8% 3/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.5#27
Receptions4.3#24
Targets7.3#17
Yds/Target5.3#31
Rec TD0.4#16

TEs vs LAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.7

Avg diff %-67%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Johnny Mundt	0	1.5	-100%
Sep 27	Evan Engram	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 21	Isaiah Likely	5	5.7	-12%
Sep 10	George Kittle	2	4.7	-57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	4%24.0 yds	4%17.0 yds
Short	26%6.1 yds	15%7.2 yds	48%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	2	Over	1.5	36 (61%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	46 (70%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	2	Over	1.5	56 (76%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	1	Under	1.5	39 (67%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	3	Over	2.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	3	Over	2.5	30 (48%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	2	Over	—	4 (5%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	5	Over	4.5	48 (63%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	1	Under	1.5	34 (68%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Over	1.5	45 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	6	Over	5.5	35 (55%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	3	Over	3.5	53 (72%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	3	Over	1.5	57 (86%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	1	Under	2.5	43 (77%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	3	Over	1.5	46 (68%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	1	Under	1.5	32 (48%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	27 (43%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	1	Under	1.5	46 (81%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	2	Over	1.5	38 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	0	Under	—	24 (41%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	2	Over	1.5	41 (55%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	2	Over	2.5	48 (56%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	1	Under	—	44 (60%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	1	Under	—	35 (57%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	2	Over	—	46 (61%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	1	Under	—	34 (49%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	2	Over	—	33 (56%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	2	Over	—	51 (73%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	1	Under	—	49 (82%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	2	Over	—	28 (48%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	4	Over	—	61 (84%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	2	Over	—	52 (70%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	1	Under	—	43 (65%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	2	Over	—	41 (54%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	1	Under	—	31 (56%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	1	Under	—	42 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	1	Under	—	27 (46%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	1	Under	—	33 (52%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	1	Under	—	36 (58%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.