NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tony Pollard RB

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -148U +116

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 56.3% Over

Season avg: 2.0
Graph avg: 2.0
Graph median: 2.00–6
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Carries13.5▼-0.7

Rush Yds55.2▼-8.4

Rush TD0.2-0.0

Targets2.8▲+0.3

Rec2.0▲+0.1

Rec Yds6.0▼-6.1

Snaps30.2▼-8.4

Snap %53.2%▼-9.2

2025

0

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
6

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
1

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

1

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 2.1
Away 78% 14/18 · avg 2.4
vs HOU 75% 3/4 · avg 2.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 85% 17/20
O 1.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 2.5 35% 7/20
O 3.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.3#27
Yds/Carry3.5#30
Rush TD0.5#23
Targets5.5#14
Rec Yds26.5#25

RBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main RB who faced HOU this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.1

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Javonte Williams	5	3.0	+67%
Sep 27	Jonathan Taylor	2	2.7	-25%
Sep 20	Chase Brown	3	6.0	-50%
Sep 13	James Cook	3	1.0	+200%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	36%3.4 yds	18%3.2 yds	43%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	2	Over	1.5	34 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	4	Over	1.5	32 (53%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	29 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	1	Under	1.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	3	Over	2.5	34 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	2	Over	1.5	37 (50%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	0	Under	1.5	40 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	28 (53%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	39 (59%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	1	Under	0.5	27 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	4	Over	1.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	3	Over	1.5	29 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	1	Under	0.5	29 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	1	Under	0.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	6	Over	1.5	30 (57%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	2	Over	1.5	26 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	3	Over	1.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	3	Over	3.5	43 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	2	Over	2.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	0	Under	2.5	59 (89%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.