NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Amon-Ra St. Brown WR

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

7.5 Receptions O +102U -130

Hit rate · All 44%17/39 Odds imply 46.7% Over

Season avg: 7.8
Graph avg: 6.9
Graph median: 7.00–14
Over the close: 68%13/19

2026 per game

Targets11.5▲+1.4

Rec7.8▲+0.9

Rec Yds75.8▼-6.7

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps61.8▲+6.5

Snap %88.8%▲+3.5

2024

3

Sep 08
11

Sep 15
7

Sep 22
6

Sep 30
4

Oct 13
8

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
7

Nov 03
6

Nov 10
11

Nov 17
6

Nov 24
5

Nov 28
5

Dec 05
14

Dec 15
6

Dec 22
8

Dec 30
6

Jan 05
8

Jan 18
2025

4

Sep 07
9

Sep 14
7

Sep 22
7

Sep 28
8

Oct 05
9

Oct 12
6

Oct 20
9

Nov 02
5

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
9

Nov 23
0

Nov 27
6

Dec 04
13

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
8

Dec 25
11

Jan 04
2026

10

Sep 13
9

Sep 17
4

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 6.8
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 7.2
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 7.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 72% 28/39
O 6.5 54% 21/39
O 7.5 Today 44% 17/39
O 8.5 28% 11/39
O 9.5 15% 6/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds143.1#15
Receptions9.8#26
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.2#5
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	4.7	-36%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.7	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	7.7	+17%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.3	-10%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.3	+114%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%25.0 yds	9%11.4 yds	4%18.6 yds
Short	26%4.7 yds	24%7.7 yds	34%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	8	Over	6.5	68 (96%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	4	Under	7.5	48 (74%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	9	Over	7.5	62 (95%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	10	Over	6.5	69 (90%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	11	Over	10.5	69 (95%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	8	Over	6.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	4	Under	7.5	72 (97%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	13	Over	12.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	6	Under	5.5	57 (92%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	0	Under	—	4 (6%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	9	Over	7.5	66 (97%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	2	Under	2.5	57 (97%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	5	Under	5.5	54 (77%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	9	Over	6.5	61 (95%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	6	Under	7.5	62 (91%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	9	Over	10.5	48 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	8	Over	6.5	50 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	7	Under	5.5	54 (90%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	7	Under	4.5	58 (85%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	9	Over	5.5	50 (85%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	4	Under	—	63 (94%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	8	Over	—	66 (96%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	6	Under	—	55 (81%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	8	Over	—	56 (79%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	6	Under	—	55 (85%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	14	Over	—	72 (91%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	5	Under	—	68 (85%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	5	Under	—	66 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	6	Under	—	68 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	11	Over	—	63 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	6	Under	—	64 (98%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	7	Under	—	53 (93%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	2	Under	—	42 (88%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	8	Over	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	4	Under	—	43 (63%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	6	Under	—	47 (89%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	7	Under	—	65 (96%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	11	Over	—	79 (92%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	3	Under	—	60 (98%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7Underdog 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.