NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Bowers TE

LV vs NE · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

6.5 Receptions O -131U +102

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 53.4% Over

Season avg: 8.0
Graph avg: 5.9
Graph median: 5.01–12
Over the close: 29%4/14

2026 per game

Targets12.0▲+4.8

Rec8.0▲+2.7

Rec Yds101.0▲+44.3

Rec TD1.0▲+0.4

Snaps62.0▲+11.6

Snap %80.5%▼-5.4

2024

10

Nov 29
3

Dec 08
3

Dec 16
11

Dec 22
7

Dec 29
4

Jan 05
2025

5

Sep 07
5

Sep 15
4

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
12

Nov 02
1

Nov 06
7

Nov 17
6

Nov 23
4

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
6

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
2026

10

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 5.7
Away 44% 7/16 · avg 6.6
vs NE 0% 0/1 · avg 5.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 65% 13/20
O 5.5 45% 9/20
O 6.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 7.5 20% 4/20
O 8.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NE

What NE allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds35.2#30
Receptions3.9#29
Targets5.5#29
Yds/Target6.4#22
Rec TD0.1#31

TEs vs NE · 2026

Each main TE who faced NE this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.0

Avg diff %-23%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Dalton Kincaid	1	4.7	-79%
Sep 27	Brenton Strange	3	3.7	-18%
Sep 20	Pat Freiermuth	4	3.3	+20%
Sep 09	AJ Barner	2	2.3	-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.4 yds	3%5.3 yds	6%8.0 yds
Short	28%6.1 yds	19%6.3 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%4.0 yds#32	4%10.5 yds#28	5%9.4 yds#24
Short	31%5.3 yds#24	17%7.0 yds#16	37%4.2 yds#32

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%6.7 yds	1%0.0 yds	5%15.5 yds
Short	34%7.4 yds	24%8.3 yds	32%7.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	2	12.0	24	33.1%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	4	6.0	24	17.9%
3	Michael Mayer TE	4	6.0	24	17.2%
4	Tre Tucker WR	4	5.8	23	17.0%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	4	2.5	10	7.2%
8	Ian Thomas TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
9	Malik Benson WR	4	1.0	4	3.4%
10	Dareke Young WR	4	0.8	3	1.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	6	Under	6.5	69 (82%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	10	Over	4.5	55 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	5	Under	5.5	53 (98%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	6	Under	4.5	38 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	4	Under	5.5	50 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	4	Under	4.5	47 (98%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	6	Under	2.5	76 (96%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	7	Over	7.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	1	Under	1.5	50 (83%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	12	Over	6.5	52 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	5	Under	5.5	40 (77%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	4	Under	4.5	55 (83%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	5	Under	5.5	54 (77%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	5	Under	6.5	32 (51%)
2025-01-05	18	vs LAC	4	Under	—	48 (94%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NO	7	Over	—	70 (91%)
2024-12-22	16	vs JAX	11	Over	—	70 (95%)
2024-12-16	15	vs ATL	3	Under	—	63 (94%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TB	3	Under	—	57 (85%)
2024-11-29	13	@ KC	10	Over	—	61 (90%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.