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Game logs through Oct 8, 2026 · 170 players

Justin Jefferson WR

MIN vs NO ·

6.5 Receptions O +105U -133
Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 46.1% Over
Season avg
4.3
Graph avg
4.8
Graph median
4.52–10
Over the close
32%6/19
2026 per game
Targets5.7â–¼-2.6
Rec4.3â–¼-0.6
Rec Yds59.7â–¼-2.0
Rec TD0.7â–²+0.5
Snaps39.7â–¼-15.7
Snap %68.0%â–¼-26.2
Justin Jefferson receptions by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 6.5.
  1. 2025
    4
  2. 3
  3. 5
  4. 10
  5. 7
  6. 5
  7. 7
  8. 6
  9. 4
  10. 5
  11. 4
  12. 2
  13. 2
  14. 2
  15. 6
  16. 4
  17. 8
  18. 2026
    8
  19. 3
  20. 2
  21. ?

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

  • Home 44% 8/18 · avg 5.7
  • Away 25% 5/20 · avg 5.1
  • vs NO No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

  • O 4.5 50% 10/20
  • O 5.5 35% 7/20
  • O 6.5 Today 25% 5/20
  • O 7.5 15% 3/20
  • O 8.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NO

What NO allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec YdsReceptionsTargetsYds/TargetRec TD
  • Rec Yds114.7#31
  • Receptions9.4#31
  • Targets16.1#27
  • Yds/Target7.1#29
  • Rec TD0.8#16

WRs vs NO · 2026

Each main WR who faced NO this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8
Avg diff %+41%
Beat their average38% (3/8)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 05 Drake London55.0+0%
Oct 05 Olamide Zaccheaus01.3-100%
Sep 27 Tre Tucker43.7+9%
Sep 27 Jalen Nailor12.0-50%
Sep 20 Rashod Bateman71.3+425%
Sep 20 Chris Moore11.0+0%
Sep 13 Amon-Ra St. Brown107.0+43%
Sep 13 Jameson Williams44.0+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep10%14.4 yds2%11.2 yds8%6.9 yds
Short26%4.6 yds18%7.0 yds35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep9%7.7 yds#262%16.0 yds#157%12.2 yds#10
Short33%6.3 yds#913%6.7 yds#1737%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep14%15.9 yds3%11.0 yds6%0.0 yds
Short23%2.2 yds22%9.8 yds32%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · MIN 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Justin Jefferson WR35.71726.2%
2T.J. Hockenson TE46.52624.5%
3Jordan Addison WR45.52222.3%
4Aaron Jones RB43.81513.1%
5Josh Oliver TE31.757.6%
6Tai Felton WR21.535.5%
7Jauan Jennings WR31.345.1%
8DeeJay Dallas RB40.833.2%
9Gavin Bartholomew TE11.013.0%
10Myles Price WR40.832.8%

Game log · 20 games

DateWkOppReceptionsvs 6.5CloseSnaps
2026-09-273@ TB2Under5.57 (12%)
2026-09-202@ CHI3Under6.552 (100%)
2026-09-131vs GB8Over5.560 (92%)
2026-01-0418vs GB8Over5.551 (76%)
2025-12-2517vs DET4Under5.553 (98%)
2025-12-2116@ NYG6Under4.558 (95%)
2025-12-1415@ DAL2Under2.553 (96%)
2025-12-0714vs WAS2Under2.551 (80%)
2025-11-3013@ SEA2Under5.550 (96%)
2025-11-2312@ GB4Under—44 (100%)
2025-11-1611vs CHI5Under5.555 (100%)
2025-11-0910vs BAL4Under5.565 (100%)
2025-11-029@ DET6Under6.559 (95%)
2025-10-238@ LAC7Over8.543 (88%)
2025-10-197vs PHI5Under5.568 (99%)
2025-10-055@ CLE7Over5.565 (100%)
2025-09-284@ PIT10Over9.576 (100%)
2025-09-213vs CIN5Under5.548 (80%)
2025-09-142vs ATL3Under2.547 (100%)
2025-09-081@ CHI4Under4.555 (98%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.