NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kendrick Bourne WR

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +102U -130

Hit rate · All 40%12/30 Odds imply 46.7% Over

Season avg: 4.0
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.00–10
Over the close: 27%3/11

2026 per game

Targets4.7▲+1.0

Rec4.0▲+1.5

Rec Yds36.0▼-0.7

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps42.7▲+2.7

Snap %60.7%▼-0.3

2024

1

Oct 06
2

Oct 13
1

Oct 20
0

Oct 27
4

Nov 03
5

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
3

Dec 01
3

Dec 15
2

Dec 22
2

Dec 28
2

Jan 05
2025

3

Sep 14
4

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
10

Oct 02
5

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
3

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
0

Nov 30
2

Dec 14
3

Dec 22
1

Dec 28
0

Jan 03
0

Jan 17
2026

8

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 20% 3/15 · avg 1.9
Away 60% 9/15 · avg 3.3
vs DET No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 87% 26/30
O 1.5 70% 21/30
O 2.5 Today 40% 12/30
O 3.5 20% 6/30
O 4.5 13% 4/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DET

What DET allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds181.9#2
Receptions13.4#3
Targets19.9#6
Yds/Target9.1#7
Rec TD1.1#7

WRs vs DET · 2026

Each main WR who faced DET this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.6

Avg diff %+36%

Beat their average62% (5/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tetairoa McMillan	14	4.0	+250%
Oct 04	Brycen Tremayne	2	1.3	+50%
Sep 27	Garrett Wilson	10	4.7	+114%
Sep 27	Isaiah Williams	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 17	DJ Moore	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 17	Khalil Shakir	3	4.0	-25%
Sep 13	Chris Olave	10	8.3	+20%
Sep 13	Devaughn Vele	7	4.7	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.0 yds	0%	4%0.0 yds
Short	43%7.4 yds	21%3.3 yds	18%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	2	Under	2.5	48 (55%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	2	Under	2.5	30 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	8	Over	2.5	50 (67%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	0	Under	0.5	24 (40%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	22 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	1	Under	1.5	19 (26%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	3	Over	2.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	2	Under	—	33 (45%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	0	Under	—	23 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	1	Under	2.5	43 (68%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	2	Under	2.5	48 (73%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	3	Over	2.5	38 (79%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	2	Under	4.5	52 (78%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	5	Over	—	55 (80%)
2025-10-02	5	@ LA	10	Over	—	70 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	1	Under	—	44 (67%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ARI	4	Over	—	47 (72%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NO	3	Over	—	35 (49%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	2	Under	—	24 (38%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	2	Under	—	38 (72%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	2	Under	—	51 (70%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	3	Over	—	27 (53%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	3	Over	—	46 (64%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	3	Over	—	41 (59%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	5	Over	—	36 (47%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	4	Over	—	54 (78%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	52 (78%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	1	Under	—	37 (62%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	2	Under	—	34 (52%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	1	Under	—	16 (27%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.