NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -120U -106

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 51.5% Over

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 2.0
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Targets4.2▲+1.4

Rec2.2▲+0.3

Rec Yds20.5▼-6.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps35.5▲+17.6

Snap %53.5%▲+26.4

2025

3

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
3

Nov 13
1

Nov 23
3

Dec 01
0

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
1

Jan 11
2

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
5

Feb 08
2026

5

Sep 09
1

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 2.9
Away 48% 10/21 · avg 2.8
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 55% 11/20
O 2.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 3.5 15% 3/20
O 4.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds136.0#18
Receptions10.4#18
Targets17.0#19
Yds/Target8.0#14
Rec TD0.5#28

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	4	3.3	+20%
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	5	2.0	+150%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	9	8.7	+4%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	3	6.0	-50%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	1	4.0	-75%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	3	4.7	-36%
Sep 13	Chris Bell	1	1.3	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	21%5.4 yds	6%0.0 yds	9%0.0 yds
Short	24%7.5 yds	21%9.3 yds	21%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	2	Under	2.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	1	Under	2.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	1	Under	3.5	26 (47%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	5	Over	1.5	44 (62%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	5	Over	1.5	29 (41%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	1.5	12 (19%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	2	Under	1.5	17 (26%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	21 (33%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	2	Under	—	15 (25%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	1	Under	2.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	13 (18%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	0	Under	1.5	10 (19%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	3	Over	3.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	1	Under	1.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	3	Over	2.5	19 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	2	Under	2.5	13 (21%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	4	Over	4.5	16 (24%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	1	Under	2.5	14 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	3	Over	2.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	3	Over	1.5	16 (25%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.