NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Warren RB

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -136U +106

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 54.3% Over

Season avg: 3.2
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 26%5/19

2026 per game

Carries13.8▲+0.6

Rush Yds77.2▲+18.4

Rush TD0.0▼-0.4

Targets5.0▲+2.3

Rec3.2▲+0.8

Rec Yds35.8▲+15.9

Snaps50.2▲+20.0

Snap %73.8%▲+23.3

2025

4

Sep 14
5

Sep 21
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 16
2

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
3

Dec 15
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
1

Jan 12
2026

5

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
3

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 39% 7/18 · avg 2.6
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 2.6
vs IND 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 85% 17/20
O 2.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 3.5 25% 5/20
O 4.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs IND

What IND allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.0#16
Yds/Carry4.2#20
Rush TD0.7#16
Targets4.8#24
Rec Yds24.9#26

RBs vs IND · 2026

Each main RB who faced IND this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8

Avg diff %+50%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	2	1.0	+100%
Sep 27	Woody Marks	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 20	Kenneth Walker III	6	2.0	+200%
Sep 13	Derrick Henry	1	2.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	32%3.2 yds	16%13.0 yds	53%7.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	3	Over	3.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	3	Over	4.5	56 (90%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	2	Under	3.5	50 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	5	Over	2.5	25 (37%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	26 (46%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	28 (37%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	21 (32%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	2	Under	2.5	36 (49%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	3	Over	2.5	30 (45%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	3	Over	1.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	2	Under	2.5	24 (56%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	0	Under	2.5	36 (50%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	2	Under	2.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	2	Under	2.5	24 (46%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	2	Under	1.5	35 (56%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	2	Under	—	39 (62%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	4	Over	5.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	2	Under	2.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	5	Over	2.5	43 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	4	Over	4.5	36 (58%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5PrizePicks 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.