NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

RJ Harvey RB

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +123U -157

Hit rate · All 27%6/22 Odds imply 42.3% Over

Season avg: 6.7
Graph avg: 3.5
Graph median: 3.50–10
Over the close: 70%14/20

2026 per game

Carries4.0▼-4.7

Rush Yds16.3▼-15.1

Rush TD0.0▼-0.4

Targets7.0▲+3.3

Rec6.7▲+3.7

Rec Yds44.0▲+21.7

Snaps26.3▼-3.0

Snap %43.7%▼-0.1

2025

1

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
4

Sep 29
3

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
5

Nov 02
2

Nov 06
3

Nov 16
3

Nov 30
6

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
5

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
5

Jan 17
4

Jan 25
2026

4

Sep 14
6

Sep 27
10

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 17% 2/12 · avg 2.7
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 4.4
vs LAC 0% 0/2 · avg 2.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 68% 15/22
O 3.5 50% 11/22
O 4.5 Today 27% 6/22
O 5.5 14% 3/22
O 6.5 4% 1/22

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.3#24
Yds/Carry3.8#25
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets4.9#21
Rec Yds29.6#17

RBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.2

Avg diff %-51%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	George Holani	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 27	James Cook	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 20	Ashton Jeanty	4	5.0	-20%
Sep 13	Jeremiyah Love	2	3.0	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	40%6.2 yds	14%3.5 yds	44%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 22 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	10	Over	3.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	6	Over	2.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	4	Under	2.5	26 (51%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	4	Under	3.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	5	Over	2.5	45 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	1	Under	0.5	33 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	5	Over	4.5	47 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	4	Under	2.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	0	Under	—	46 (68%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	6	Over	3.5	50 (68%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	3	Under	2.5	33 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	3	Under	3.5	38 (61%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	2	Under	2.5	17 (28%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	5	Over	1.5	20 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	1	Under	0.5	17 (27%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	1	Under	1.5	20 (25%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	4	Under	4.5	17 (28%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	3	Under	1.5	15 (20%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	4	Under	0.5	33 (41%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	3	Under	3.5	15 (29%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	1	Under	—	19 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	1	Under	1.5	22 (29%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.