NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Elijah Higgins TE

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

0.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 20 80%16/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 1.7
Graph avg: 1.8
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 46%5/11

2026 per game

Targets1.7▼-0.5

Rec1.7▼-0.1

Rec Yds13.0▼-4.7

Rec TD0.3▲+0.3

Snaps24.0▼-3.9

Snap %34.0%▼-8.5

2025

1

Sep 07
2

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
0

Sep 25
2

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
3

Nov 03
2

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
7

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 81% 13/16 · avg 1.6
Away 84% 16/19 · avg 1.6
vs DET 100% 1/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 80% 16/20
O 1.5 55% 11/20
O 2.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs DET

What DET allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds77.8#2
Receptions7.5#1
Targets10.4#1
Yds/Target7.5#12
Rec TD0.9#4

TEs vs DET · 2026

Each main TE who faced DET this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.6

Avg diff %+106%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Darren Waller	3	3.3	-10%
Sep 27	Kenyon Sadiq	7	1.7	+320%
Sep 17	Dalton Kincaid	7	2.7	+163%
Sep 13	Juwan Johnson	3	6.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	4%0.0 yds
Short	36%9.8 yds	32%6.1 yds	29%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	2	Over	0.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	3	Over	—	35 (40%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	0	Under	—	13 (26%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	3	Over	3.5	33 (60%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	0	Under	2.5	34 (60%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	7	Over	5.5	36 (63%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	1	Over	1.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	1	Over	1.5	41 (66%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	2	Over	1.5	25 (41%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	0	Under	1.5	31 (37%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	2	Over	2.5	28 (35%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	2	Over	1.5	28 (37%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	3	Over	—	27 (40%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	1	Over	—	32 (42%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	2	Over	1.5	33 (45%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	2	Over	—	20 (29%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	0	Under	—	9 (13%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	1	Over	—	10 (15%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	2	Over	—	22 (40%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	1	Over	—	20 (30%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 14m ago.