NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Kincaid TE

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +121U -155

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 42.7% Over

Season avg: 3.8
Graph avg: 3.3
Graph median: 3.00–7
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Targets4.8▲+0.5

Rec3.8▲+0.3

Rec Yds67.5▲+18.8

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps42.5▲+16.2

Snap %66.0%▲+27.3

2024

1

Jan 19
2

Jan 26
2025

4

Sep 07
4

Sep 14
5

Sep 18
1

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
1

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
4

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
3

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
6

Jan 17
2026

5

Sep 13
7

Sep 17
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 3.3
Away 25% 4/16 · avg 3.3
vs LAR No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 60% 12/20
O 3.5 45% 9/20
O 4.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 5.5 20% 4/20
O 6.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.5#27
Receptions4.3#24
Targets7.3#17
Yds/Target5.3#31
Rec TD0.4#16

TEs vs LAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.7

Avg diff %-67%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Johnny Mundt	0	1.5	-100%
Sep 27	Evan Engram	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 21	Isaiah Likely	5	5.7	-12%
Sep 10	George Kittle	2	4.7	-57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.0 yds	12%13.0 yds	9%19.5 yds
Short	33%13.1 yds	19%9.0 yds	21%9.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Under	4.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	2	Under	4.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	7	Over	4.5	49 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	5	Over	3.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	6	Over	3.5	38 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	3	Under	3.5	28 (44%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	3	Under	—	10 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	19 (38%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Under	3.5	25 (36%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	4	Under	2.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	2	Under	4.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	6	Over	5.5	23 (35%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	14 (22%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	6	Over	4.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	1	Under	2.5	22 (37%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	5	Over	5.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	4	Under	3.5	36 (48%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	4	Under	3.5	43 (51%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	2	Under	—	33 (45%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	1	Under	—	31 (51%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.