NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylin Noel WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

20.5 Rec Yds O -120U -125

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 49.5% Over

Season avg: 45.4
Graph avg: 25.5
Graph median: 13.00–85
Over the close: 41%7/17

2026 per game

Targets3.4▲+1.5

Rec2.6▲+1.2

Rec Yds45.4▲+30.0

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps30.0▲+13.4

Snap %44.6%▲+20.4

20.5

2025

13

Oct 05
77

Oct 20
63

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
35

Nov 09
12

Nov 16
4

Nov 20
0

Nov 30
12

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
54

Dec 27
13

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
0

Jan 18
2026

53

Sep 13
31

Sep 20
17

Sep 27
85

Oct 04
41

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 42% 5/12 · avg 23.5
Away 25% 3/12 · avg 19.8
vs JAX 50% 1/2 · avg 19.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 10.5 65% 13/20
O 15.5 45% 9/20
O 20.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 25.5 40% 8/20
O 30.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds172.6#4
Receptions13.4#3
Targets21.3#3
Yds/Target8.1#14
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.4

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average70% (7/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dontayvion Wicks	63	49.2	+28%
Oct 11	Makai Lemon	43	16.2	+165%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	157	66.5	+136%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	27	65.5	-59%
Sep 27	Romeo Doubs	49	42.5	+15%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	87	40.7	+114%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	44.3	-100%
Sep 20	Courtland Sutton	25	19.6	+28%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	59	67.8	-13%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	43	26.5	+62%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	15%31.5 yds	4%0.0 yds	4%22.0 yds
Short	35%4.8 yds	23%12.0 yds	19%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	41	Over	20.5	30 (45%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	85	Over	11.5	34 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	17	Under	27.5	14 (26%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	31	Over	25.5	48 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	53	Over	15.5	24 (30%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	0	Under	9.5	6 (8%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	6 (9%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	13	Under	5.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	54	Over	54.5	16 (25%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	0	Under	0.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	0	Under	10.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	12	Under	0.5	25 (36%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	7.5	18 (24%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	4	Under	10.5	17 (29%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	12	Under	12.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	35	Over	—	25 (33%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	0	Under	10.5	11 (15%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	63	Over	34.5	31 (39%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	77	Over	—	33 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	13	Under	—	21 (30%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Fanatics, updated 14m ago.