NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kayshon Boutte WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

24.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 60%23/38 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 30.6
Graph avg: 38.4
Graph median: 33.00–117
Over the close: 32%7/22

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-0.1

Rec2.4▲+0.1

Rec Yds30.6▼-9.3

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps40.8▼-2.9

Snap %61.6%▼-6.0

24.5

2024

2

Sep 19
11

Sep 29
34

Oct 06
59

Oct 13
33

Oct 20
46

Oct 27
18

Nov 03
47

Nov 10
33

Nov 17
6

Nov 24
41

Dec 01
19

Dec 15
95

Dec 22
28

Dec 28
117

Jan 05
2025

103

Sep 07
16

Sep 14
28

Sep 21
18

Sep 28
43

Oct 05
93

Oct 12
55

Oct 19
75

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
15

Nov 23
35

Dec 01
30

Dec 14
16

Dec 21
24

Jan 04
66

Jan 11
75

Jan 18
6

Jan 25
21

Feb 08
2026

21

Sep 13
37

Sep 20
21

Sep 27
36

Oct 04
38

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 24.5

Home 76% 16/21 · avg 44.1
Away 41% 7/17 · avg 31.4
vs JAX 100% 1/1 · avg 33.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 14.5 87% 33/38
O 19.5 71% 27/38
O 24.5 Today 60% 23/38
O 29.5 55% 21/38
O 34.5 45% 17/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds172.6#4
Receptions13.4#3
Targets21.3#3
Yds/Target8.1#14
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.4

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average70% (7/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dontayvion Wicks	63	49.2	+28%
Oct 11	Makai Lemon	43	16.2	+165%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	157	66.5	+136%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	27	65.5	-59%
Sep 27	Romeo Doubs	49	42.5	+15%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	87	40.7	+114%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	44.3	-100%
Sep 20	Courtland Sutton	25	19.6	+28%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	59	67.8	-13%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	43	26.5	+62%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%14.0 yds	2%0.0 yds	19%9.5 yds
Short	29%7.0 yds	19%7.5 yds	17%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 24.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	38	Over	25.5	39 (59%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	36	Over	23.5	34 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	21	Under	36.5	37 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	37	Over	35.5	58 (72%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	21	Under	—	36 (46%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	21	Under	30.5	52 (73%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	6	Under	31.5	40 (62%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	75	Over	33.5	54 (83%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	66	Over	66.5	34 (53%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	24	Under	24.5	34 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	16	Under	16.5	43 (58%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	30	Over	30.5	39 (75%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	35	Over	35.5	49 (75%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	15	Under	31.5	57 (80%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	0	Under	37.5	18 (26%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	75	Over	75.5	50 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	55	Over	55.5	46 (71%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	93	Over	65.5	43 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	43	Over	25.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	18	Under	20.5	34 (69%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	28	Over	35.5	56 (76%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	16	Under	44.5	43 (72%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	103	Over	84.5	58 (82%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	117	Over	—	45 (70%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	28	Over	—	41 (77%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	95	Over	—	64 (88%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	19	Under	—	45 (88%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	41	Over	—	71 (99%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	6	Under	—	60 (87%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	33	Over	—	73 (96%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	47	Over	—	62 (97%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	18	Under	—	66 (96%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	46	Over	—	55 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	33	Over	—	50 (83%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	59	Over	—	55 (83%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	34	Over	—	40 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	11	Under	—	15 (23%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	2	Under	—	18 (35%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.