NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kenny Gainwell RB

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

12.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 10.8
Graph avg: 26.8
Graph median: 23.51–81
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Carries3.4▼-3.3

Rush Yds8.8▼-22.1

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets3.2▼-1.9

Rec2.2▼-2.1

Rec Yds10.8▼-17.6

12.5

2025

35

Sep 28
14

Oct 12
1

Oct 16
4

Oct 26
35

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
81

Nov 16
30

Nov 23
25

Nov 30
27

Dec 07
46

Dec 15
78

Dec 21
12

Dec 28
64

Jan 04
26

Jan 12
2026

3

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
14

Sep 27
22

Oct 04
10

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 12.5

Home 50% 13/26 · avg 18.9
Away 17% 3/18 · avg 12.1
vs PIT 100% 1/1 · avg 40.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 95% 19/20
O 7.5 75% 15/20
O 12.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 17.5 55% 11/20
O 22.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.8#21
Yds/Carry4.2#18
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.2#8
Rec Yds36.4#7

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.9

Avg diff %+75%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jonathan Taylor	37	17.2	+114%
Oct 01	Raheim Sanders	7	16.8	-58%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	8	29.0	-72%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	3	27.0	-89%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	90	15.5	+481%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%45.0 yds
Short	49%5.4 yds	16%7.1 yds	33%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 12.5	Close
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	10	Under	12.5
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	22	Over	9.5
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	14	Over	9.5
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	5	Under	12.5
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	3	Under	—
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	26	Over	—
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	64	Over	—
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	12	Under	—
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	78	Over	—
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	46	Over	—
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	27	Over	—
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	25	Over	—
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	30	Over	—
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	81	Over	—
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	4	Under	—
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	35	Over	—
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	4	Under	—
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	1	Under	—
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	14	Over	—
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	35	Over	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5PrizePicks 12.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.