NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Warren RB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

28.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 34%13/38 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 46.0
Graph avg: 23.6
Graph median: 19.0-4–87
Over the close: 57%12/21

2026 per game

Carries14.0▲+0.9

Rush Yds82.0▲+23.1

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.2▲+2.5

Rec3.8▲+1.4

Rec Yds46.0▲+26.2

Snaps50.6▲+20.3

Snap %76.4%▲+25.9

28.5

2024

13

Sep 08
19

Sep 15
-4

Sep 22
11

Oct 13
15

Oct 20
13

Oct 28
29

Nov 10
27

Nov 17
19

Nov 21
55

Dec 01
25

Dec 08
3

Dec 15
44

Dec 21
41

Dec 25
0

Jan 04
19

Jan 11
2025

22

Sep 07
86

Sep 14
34

Sep 21
11

Oct 12
31

Oct 16
11

Oct 26
-2

Nov 02
21

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
9

Nov 30
49

Dec 07
15

Dec 15
8

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
33

Jan 04
4

Jan 12
2026

27

Sep 13
34

Sep 20
49

Sep 27
33

Oct 01
87

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 26% 5/19 · avg 23.8
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 23.4
vs TB No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 55% 21/38
O 23.5 42% 16/38
O 28.5 Today 34% 13/38
O 33.5 24% 9/38
O 38.5 18% 7/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TB

What TB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.1#28
Yds/Carry3.9#22
Rush TD0.4#29
Targets5.8#11
Rec Yds35.7#9

RBs vs TB · 2026

Each main RB who faced TB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.1

Avg diff %+51%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Javonte Williams	17	19.2	-12%
Oct 04	Chris Brooks	5	6.3	-21%
Sep 27	Aaron Jones	34	9.5	+258%
Sep 20	Quinshon Judkins	27	18.8	+44%
Sep 13	Chase Brown	22	25.5	-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%3.8 yds	12%14.2 yds	60%9.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	87	Over	21.5	52 (87%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	33	Over	25.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	49	Over	25.5	56 (90%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	34	Over	18.5	50 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	27	Under	19.5	25 (37%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	4	Under	0.5	26 (46%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	33	Over	33.5	28 (37%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	0	Under	11.5	21 (32%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	8	Under	10.5	36 (49%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	15	Under	10.5	30 (45%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	49	Over	4.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	9	Under	10.5	24 (56%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	0	Under	0.5	36 (50%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	5	Under	10.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	21	Under	16.5	24 (46%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	-2	Under	21.5	35 (56%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	11	Under	—	39 (62%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	31	Over	35.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	11	Under	11.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	34	Over	22.5	43 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	86	Over	85.5	36 (58%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	22	Under	17.5	25 (45%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ BAL	19	Under	—	25 (54%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CIN	0	Under	—	23 (38%)
2024-12-25	17	vs KC	41	Over	—	40 (53%)
2024-12-21	16	@ BAL	44	Over	—	40 (67%)
2024-12-15	15	@ PHI	3	Under	—	23 (53%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CLE	25	Under	—	34 (52%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CIN	55	Over	—	25 (36%)
2024-11-21	12	@ CLE	19	Under	—	39 (57%)
2024-11-17	11	vs BAL	27	Under	—	26 (33%)
2024-11-10	10	@ WAS	29	Over	—	35 (45%)
2024-10-28	8	vs NYG	13	Under	—	26 (39%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NYJ	15	Under	—	35 (51%)
2024-10-13	6	@ LV	11	Under	—	25 (37%)
2024-09-22	3	vs LAC	-4	Under	—	23 (34%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DEN	19	Under	—	32 (48%)
2024-09-08	1	@ ATL	13	Under	—	21 (31%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.