NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Greg Dulcich TE

MIA vs NYJ · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

25.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 47%8/17 Odds imply —

Season avg: 31.8
Graph avg: 28.8
Graph median: 24.00–58
Over the close: 50%6/12

2026 per game

Targets4.2▲+0.6

Rec3.2▲+0.4

Rec Yds31.8▼-5.5

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps44.8▲+19.6

Snap %70.5%▲+26.7

25.5

2024

12

Sep 08
16

Sep 15
0

Sep 29
0

Dec 15
2025

49

Oct 30
22

Nov 09
18

Nov 16
24

Nov 30
41

Dec 07
46

Dec 15
46

Dec 21
58

Dec 28
31

Jan 04
2026

18

Sep 13
17

Sep 20
55

Sep 27
37

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 50% 5/10 · avg 32.5
Away 43% 3/7 · avg 23.6
vs NYJ 50% 1/2 · avg 20.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 82% 14/17
O 20.5 59% 10/17
O 25.5 Today 47% 8/17
O 30.5 47% 8/17
O 35.5 41% 7/17

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds58.5#10
Receptions5.8#11
Targets7.6#15
Yds/Target7.7#8
Rec TD0.4#18

TEs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main TE who faced NYJ this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.0

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Hunter Henry	48	35.4	+36%
Oct 11	Harold Fannin Jr.	4	32.4	-88%
Oct 04	Colston Loveland	57	23.6	+142%
Sep 27	Sam LaPorta	44	68.0	-35%
Sep 20	Tucker Kraft	15	46.8	-68%
Sep 13	Gunnar Helm	28	8.0	+250%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.9 yds	8%12.1 yds	9%10.8 yds
Short	30%7.0 yds	14%7.1 yds	32%4.6 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#17	8%14.2 yds#4
Short	30%5.3 yds#25	19%7.0 yds#17	31%6.5 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	5%32.5 yds	3%29.0 yds
Short	30%11.5 yds	32%8.7 yds	27%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	5	7.2	36	28.0%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4	4.2	17	17.3%
4	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	4	4.2	17	14.9%
6	Chris Bell WR	5	3.0	15	11.4%
7	Jalen Tolbert WR	2	1.5	3	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Will Kacmarek TE	5	1.2	6	5.5%
10	Ollie Gordon II RB	4	1.2	5	5.1%

Game log · 17 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CIN	37	Over	25.5	49 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	55	Over	22.5	51 (70%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	17	Under	20.5	36 (61%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	18	Under	26.5	43 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NE	31	Over	31.5	29 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	58	Over	58.5	20 (36%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	46	Over	20.5	17 (29%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	46	Over	3.5	19 (38%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	41	Over	41.5	35 (54%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	24	Under	9.5	22 (37%)
2025-11-16	11	vs WAS	18	Under	20.5	30 (54%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BUF	22	Under	21.5	31 (58%)
2025-10-30	9	vs BAL	49	Over	—	23 (36%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BAL	0	Under	—	7 (10%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	24 (39%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	16	Under	—	33 (54%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	12	Under	—	46 (67%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 25.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.