NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

RJ Harvey RB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

24.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 42%10/24 Odds imply —

Season avg: 32.6
Graph avg: 24.5
Graph median: 21.5-1–71
Over the close: 54%12/22

2026 per game

Carries4.2▼-4.5

Rush Yds16.2▼-15.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.2▲+1.5

Rec4.6▲+1.7

Rec Yds32.6▲+10.3

Snaps25.2▼-4.1

Snap %41.6%▼-2.1

24.5

2025

-1

Sep 07
16

Sep 14
14

Sep 21
40

Sep 29
18

Oct 05
21

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
5

Oct 26
51

Nov 02
9

Nov 06
20

Nov 16
27

Nov 30
25

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
71

Dec 21
33

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
46

Jan 17
22

Jan 25
2026

23

Sep 14
41

Sep 27
68

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
31

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 24.5

Home 38% 5/13 · avg 22.4
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 26.9
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 14.5 67% 16/24
O 19.5 58% 14/24
O 24.5 Today 42% 10/24
O 29.5 33% 8/24
O 34.5 25% 6/24

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.5#1
Yds/Carry4.4#9
Rush TD0.7#10
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds38.2#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-13.5

Avg diff %-63%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	17	40.0	-58%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	56	46.8	+20%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	8	17.8	-55%
Sep 27	Kyle Juszczyk	0	27.5	-100%
Sep 20	George Holani	2	14.8	-86%
Sep 13	Alec Ingold	0	17.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	38%6.8 yds	11%4.0 yds	49%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 24 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 24.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	31	Over	22.5	24 (40%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	0	Under	25.5	23 (37%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	68	Over	21.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	41	Over	16.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	23	Under	16.5	26 (51%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	22	Under	21.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	46	Over	18.5	45 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	5	Under	0.5	33 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	33	Over	32.5	47 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	71	Over	71.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	0	Under	—	46 (68%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	25	Over	25.5	50 (68%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	27	Over	17.5	33 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	20	Under	20.5	38 (61%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	9	Under	9.5	17 (28%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	51	Over	9.5	20 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	5	Under	10.5	17 (27%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	2	Under	2.5	20 (25%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	21	Under	21.5	17 (28%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	18	Under	13.5	15 (20%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	40	Over	10.5	33 (41%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	14	Under	15.5	15 (29%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	16	Under	—	19 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	-1	Under	10.5	22 (29%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.