NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Isaiah Likely TE

NYG vs NO · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

52.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 56.8
Graph avg: 37.8
Graph median: 29.50–95
Over the close: 24%4/17

2026 per game

Targets9.6▲+6.6

Rec6.6▲+4.3

Rec Yds56.8▲+31.2

Rec TD0.8▲+0.7

Snaps48.6▲+11.9

Snap %69.6%▲+12.3

52.5

2024

38

Jan 04
53

Jan 11
73

Jan 19
2025

12

Oct 05
6

Oct 12
8

Oct 26
60

Oct 30
17

Nov 09
15

Nov 16
10

Nov 23
95

Nov 27
25

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
27

Dec 27
32

Jan 04
2026

78

Sep 13
33

Sep 21
13

Sep 27
66

Oct 04
94

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 52.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 30.6
Away 31% 5/16 · avg 40.2
vs NO No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 42.5 35% 7/20
O 47.5 35% 7/20
O 52.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 57.5 30% 6/20
O 62.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NO

What NO allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds56.4#12
Receptions6.1#7
Targets8.5#5
Yds/Target6.6#21
Rec TD0.3#19

TEs vs NO · 2026

Each main TE who faced NO this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.5

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	T.J. Hockenson	7	48.8	-86%
Oct 05	Austin Hooper	9	15.5	-42%
Sep 27	Brock Bowers	116	98.0	+18%
Sep 20	Mark Andrews	49	32.0	+53%
Sep 13	Sam LaPorta	48	67.0	-28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYG offense

NYG offense: Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.2 yds	4%10.9 yds	8%6.3 yds
Short	33%5.8 yds	22%6.1 yds	26%5.5 yds

Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#21	2%15.0 yds#16	8%11.9 yds#13
Short	32%6.6 yds#8	12%5.9 yds#25	38%4.6 yds#28

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%28.0 yds	2%0.0 yds	9%5.7 yds
Short	31%6.6 yds	28%8.2 yds	28%4.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYG targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Isaiah Likely TE	5	9.6	48	29.8%
2	Malik Nabers WR	5	9.2	46	26.9%
3	Malachi Fields WR	5	3.4	17	11.3%
4	Darnell Mooney WR	5	3.4	17	10.2%
5	Devin Singletary RB	2	2.5	5	8.5%
6	Cam Skattebo RB	5	2.4	12	8.2%
7	Theo Johnson TE	4	2.2	9	6.3%
8	Patrick Ricard RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
9	Odell Beckham Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	4.8%
10	Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	5	0.6	3	1.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 52.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ WAS	94	Over	42.5	71 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	vs ARI	66	Over	41.5	44 (66%)
2026-09-27	3	vs TEN	13	Under	38.5	54 (84%)
2026-09-21	2	@ LA	33	Under	45.5	40 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	vs DAL	78	Over	36.5	34 (49%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	32	Under	6.5	25 (49%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	27	Under	27.5	53 (70%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	22 (40%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	25	Under	26.5	48 (60%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	95	Over	95.5	31 (52%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	10	Under	22.5	36 (57%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	15	Under	15.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	17	Under	20.5	39 (56%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	60	Over	60.5	33 (59%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	8	Under	18.5	36 (58%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	6	Under	17.5	63 (81%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	12	Under	12.5	23 (53%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	73	Over	—	47 (80%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	53	Over	—	59 (80%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	38	Under	—	43 (61%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 52.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.