NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Derrick Henry RB

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

6.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 51%21/41 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 12.4
Graph avg: 9.9
Graph median: 7.00–44
Over the close: 32%7/22

2026 per game

Carries22.6▲+4.5

Rush Yds95.2▲+1.4

Rush TD1.4▲+0.5

Targets1.8▲+0.6

Rec1.6▲+0.7

Rec Yds12.4▲+3.6

Snaps38.6▲+6.0

Snap %58.2%▲+3.7

6.5

2024

12

Sep 15
23

Sep 22
10

Sep 29
4

Oct 06
0

Oct 13
13

Oct 21
4

Oct 27
27

Nov 03
3

Nov 07
0

Nov 17
0

Nov 25
29

Dec 01
0

Dec 15
27

Dec 21
18

Dec 25
23

Jan 04
0

Jan 11
0

Jan 19
2025

13

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
7

Sep 22
16

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
8

Oct 12
0

Oct 26
2

Oct 30
9

Nov 09
19

Nov 16
24

Nov 23
44

Nov 27
8

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 27
0

Jan 04
2026

19

Sep 13
19

Sep 20
0

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
18

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 12.3
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 7.5
vs CLE 50% 2/4 · avg 11.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 63% 26/41
O 6.5 Today 51% 21/41
O 11.5 39% 16/41
O 16.5 29% 12/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds122.2#2
Yds/Carry5.1#1
Rush TD0.8#10
Targets5.2#19
Rec Yds19.9#31

RBs vs CLE · 2026

Each main RB who faced CLE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.0

Avg diff %-24%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Braelon Allen	0	4.8	-100%
Oct 01	Jaylen Warren	33	49.2	-33%
Sep 27	Chuba Hubbard	28	18.7	+50%
Sep 20	Bucky Irving	1	17.5	-94%
Sep 13	Bhayshul Tuten	22	14.0	+57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	41%15.6 yds	18%-0.3 yds	41%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 41 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ATL	18	Over	4.5	42 (55%)
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	6	Under	7.5	40 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	0	Under	10.5	43 (67%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	19	Over	6.5	31 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	19	Over	7.5	37 (54%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	36 (71%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	0	Under	0.5	48 (63%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	24 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	0	Under	9.5	15 (37%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	8	Over	0.5	43 (54%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	44	Over	45.5	24 (40%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	24	Over	5.5	35 (56%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	19	Over	20.5	33 (54%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	9	Over	10.5	47 (67%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	2	Under	6.5	36 (64%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	0	Under	4.5	36 (58%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	8	Over	5.5	38 (49%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	28 (65%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	16	Over	20.5	21 (38%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	7	Over	4.5	28 (49%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	0	Under	0.5	34 (61%)
2025-09-07	1	@ BUF	13	Over	15.5	29 (57%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	0	Under	—	35 (59%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	0	Under	—	45 (61%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	23	Over	—	49 (70%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	18	Over	—	41 (65%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	27	Over	—	46 (74%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	0	Under	—	27 (46%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	29	Over	—	37 (51%)
2024-11-25	12	@ LAC	0	Under	—	39 (60%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	0	Under	—	30 (49%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	3	Under	—	39 (62%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	27	Over	—	35 (61%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	4	Under	—	35 (51%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	13	Over	—	34 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	0	Under	—	43 (63%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	4	Under	—	39 (50%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	10	Over	—	37 (65%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	23	Over	—	37 (59%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	12	Over	—	30 (46%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	0	Under	—	37 (46%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.