NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Allgeier RB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 10%4/39 Odds imply —

Season avg: 8.8
Graph avg: 5.8
Graph median: 3.0-6–35
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Carries7.0▼-1.4

Rush Yds23.8▼-6.4

Rush TD0.2▼-0.3

Targets2.4▲+1.5

Rec2.4▲+1.6

Rec Yds8.8▲+3.2

Snaps35.0▲+15.7

Snap %51.6%▲+21.4

14.5

2024

0

Sep 08
12

Sep 16
0

Sep 22
20

Sep 29
13

Oct 03
3

Oct 13
9

Oct 20
0

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
0

Nov 10
-1

Nov 17
6

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
0

Dec 16
9

Dec 22
0

Dec 29
17

Jan 05
2025

0

Sep 07
4

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
0

Sep 28
6

Oct 13
0

Oct 19
10

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
6

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
35

Nov 30
33

Dec 07
0

Dec 11
-6

Dec 21
0

Dec 29
3

Jan 04
2026

9

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
9

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 16% 3/19 · avg 7.9
Away 5% 1/20 · avg 3.9
vs LAR 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 46% 18/39
O 9.5 20% 8/39
O 14.5 Today 10% 4/39
O 19.5 8% 3/39
O 24.5 5% 2/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds95.5#16
Yds/Carry4.2#19
Rush TD0.6#15
Targets6.6#6
Rec Yds44.2#1

RBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.0

Avg diff %+15%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Ty Johnson	72	29.5	+144%
Oct 04	Will Shipley	0	7.8	-100%
Sep 27	RJ Harvey	41	30.5	+34%
Sep 21	Cam Skattebo	19	15.0	+27%
Sep 10	Christian McCaffrey	20	29.2	-32%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	40%2.9 yds	10%8.5 yds	50%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	9	Under	9.5	32 (44%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	7	Under	8.5	36 (55%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	10	Under	7.5	31 (36%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	9	Under	7.5	32 (64%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	9	Under	2.5	44 (59%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	3	Under	4.5	23 (37%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	0	Under	0.5	19 (36%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	-6	Under	1.5	31 (40%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	0	Under	0.5	12 (17%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	33	Over	6.5	25 (39%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	35	Over	1.5	17 (25%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	5	Under	2.5	22 (39%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	6	Under	—	14 (21%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	0	Under	—	23 (37%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	0	Under	0.5	17 (30%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	10	Under	0.5	20 (40%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	0	Under	0.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	6	Under	0.5	22 (31%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	0	Under	0.5	21 (32%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	6 (9%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	4	Under	—	22 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	0	Under	—	19 (25%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	17	Over	—	17 (22%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	0	Under	—	8 (13%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	9	Under	—	18 (27%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	0	Under	—	15 (26%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	0	Under	—	13 (18%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	6	Under	—	24 (30%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	-1	Under	—	4 (7%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	0	Under	—	18 (23%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	0	Under	—	14 (25%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	0	Under	—	22 (35%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	9	Under	—	17 (23%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	3	Under	—	29 (41%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	13	Under	—	31 (36%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	20	Over	—	21 (38%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	0	Under	—	13 (21%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	12	Under	—	13 (21%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	0	Under	—	10 (18%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 8m ago.