NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Mark Andrews TE

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

28.5 Rec Yds O -120U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 51.0% Over

Season avg: 35.4
Graph avg: 29.6
Graph median: 25.59–91
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Targets6.0▲+1.9

Rec4.4▲+1.6

Rec Yds35.4▲+10.6

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps43.0▲+5.9

Snap %65.0%▲+3.3

28.5

2025

91

Sep 22
30

Sep 28
22

Oct 05
24

Oct 12
34

Oct 26
22

Oct 30
14

Nov 09
32

Nov 16
9

Nov 23
47

Nov 27
9

Dec 07
18

Dec 14
21

Dec 21
28

Dec 27
14

Jan 04
2026

49

Sep 13
49

Sep 20
24

Sep 27
27

Oct 04
28

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 36.5
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 30.0
vs CLE 75% 3/4 · avg 31.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 75% 15/20
O 23.5 60% 12/20
O 28.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 33.5 25% 5/20
O 38.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds56.1#13
Receptions5.9#8
Targets8.0#9
Yds/Target7.0#20
Rec TD0.3#18

TEs vs CLE · 2026

Each main TE who faced CLE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.6

Avg diff %-28%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kenyon Sadiq	3	35.8	-92%
Oct 01	Pat Freiermuth	17	38.0	-55%
Sep 27	Darren Waller	51	32.3	+58%
Sep 20	Cade Otton	38	36.0	+6%
Sep 13	Brenton Strange	23	53.0	-57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	33%5.2 yds	38%7.2 yds	23%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ATL	28	Under	30.5	55 (72%)
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	27	Under	38.5	37 (58%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	24	Under	40.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	49	Over	45.5	41 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	49	Over	32.5	49 (72%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	14	Under	14.5	30 (59%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	28	Under	22.5	31 (41%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	21	Under	18.5	24 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	18	Under	18.5	17 (41%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	9	Under	0.5	54 (68%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	47	Over	36.5	41 (68%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	9	Under	10.5	42 (67%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	32	Over	35.5	37 (61%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	14	Under	15.5	44 (63%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	22	Under	28.5	28 (50%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	34	Over	25.5	37 (60%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	24	Under	26.5	61 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	22	Under	26.5	25 (58%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	30	Over	39.5	30 (55%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	91	Over	70.5	46 (81%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 13m ago.