NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kalif Raymond WR

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

26.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 45.2
Graph avg: 25.8
Graph median: 15.00–90
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Targets5.4▲+3.4

Rec4.8▲+3.2

Rec Yds45.2▲+25.9

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps47.8▲+23.9

Snap %63.2%▲+26.6

26.5

2025

16

Sep 07
14

Sep 14
4

Sep 22
13

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
17

Oct 20
0

Nov 02
49

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
37

Nov 23
20

Dec 14
62

Dec 21
5

Dec 25
52

Jan 04
2026

84

Sep 13
40

Sep 20
90

Sep 28
6

Oct 04
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 26.5

Home 44% 7/16 · avg 25.4
Away 29% 5/17 · avg 21.2
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 16.5 45% 9/20
O 21.5 35% 7/20
O 26.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 31.5 35% 7/20
O 36.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds169.4#6
Receptions13.1#5
Targets21.6#1
Yds/Target7.8#19
Rec TD1.1#6

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.9

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	53	117.3	-55%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	62	42.8	+45%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	116	105.2	+10%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	54	49.5	+9%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	96	94.5	+2%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	100	74.2	+35%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	101	94.7	+7%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	66	78.0	-15%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	40	46.2	-14%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	26	40.5	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%28.0 yds	5%25.0 yds	2%0.0 yds
Short	25%5.0 yds	25%14.8 yds	40%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 26.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	6	Under	26.5	47 (68%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	6	Under	31.5	47 (51%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	90	Over	22.5	54 (75%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	40	Over	23.5	46 (62%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	84	Over	14.5	45 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	52	Over	—	14 (19%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	5	Under	0.5	6 (9%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	62	Over	13.5	19 (26%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	20	Under	—	11 (17%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	37	Over	30.5	27 (40%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	0	Under	0.5	38 (64%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	49	Over	49.5	38 (54%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	0	Under	10.5	29 (45%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	17	Under	15.5	30 (44%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	0	Under	10.5	2 (4%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	0	Under	10.5	2 (3%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	13	Under	15.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	4	Under	4.5	33 (49%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	14	Under	10.5	32 (54%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	16	Under	—	44 (66%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 26.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.