NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

38.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 48.6
Graph avg: 46.2
Graph median: 44.520–77
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Carries21.0▲+6.7

Rush Yds100.8▲+28.9

Rush TD1.4▲+0.6

Targets6.8▲+1.3

Rec5.4▲+0.9

Rec Yds48.6▲+12.4

Snaps52.8▲+9.4

Snap %76.6%▲+9.6

38.5

2025

77

Dec 04
20

Dec 14
66

Dec 21
23

Dec 25
33

Jan 04
2026

30

Sep 13
61

Sep 17
65

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
56

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 38.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 37.5
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 34.9
vs GB 0% 0/4 · avg 22.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 80% 8/10
O 33.5 50% 5/10
O 38.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 43.5 50% 5/10
O 48.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs GB

What GB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds110.8#2
Yds/Carry4.4#11
Rush TD1.5#1
Targets5.4#17
Rec Yds35.9#9

RBs vs GB · 2026

Each main RB who faced GB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average33% (2/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Javonte Williams	9	18.8	-52%
Oct 11	D'Andre Swift	30	22.0	+36%
Oct 04	Bucky Irving	0	14.8	-100%
Sep 24	Bijan Robinson	19	25.0	-24%
Sep 20	Breece Hall	63	19.5	+223%
Sep 13	Aaron Jones	0	18.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	33%6.2 yds	39%7.9 yds	28%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 38.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	56	Over	37.5	46 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	31	Under	35.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	65	Over	34.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	61	Over	31.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	30	Under	30.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	33	Under	33.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	23	Under	33.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	66	Over	28.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	20	Under	16.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	77	Over	80.5	43 (69%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 38.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 7m ago.